4:54 PM Saturday, September 23, 2023
Occasional rain will continue in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next few days with some dry hours mixed in. Rain should become less widespread on Monday with only a few showers possibly lingering once we get to Tuesday.
Rainfall rates haven’t been particularly intense with this system, with mostly light to moderate rainfall rates in the Northland, and expect that trend to continue so it’ll take a band of moderate rainfall rates to setup over a location for several hours in order to get some flash flooding to develop, and although there continues to be a risk for a few instances of flash flooding in parts of the Northland tonight through Monday, the risk for widespread flooding is very low with this event.
Additional rainfall amounts ranging from around 0.50 inches to 1.50 inches are possible in the Northland through early Sunday evening with locally higher amounts, and one area that may see these higher amounts which could exceed 2 inches of rain is along the North Shore of Lake Superior where we could continue to see some lake/terrain enhanced rain tonight and Sunday due to the east to southeasterly winds crossing Lake Superior.
Speaking of those easts to southeast winds they will continue to be on the breezy side the next few days especially near Lake Superior where wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible at times.
Will also see more mist and fog tonight and Sunday with dense fog possible at times especially near Lake Superior.
24-Hour Rainfall Reports from September 22-23, 2023 (ending 4:16 PM on the 23rd)
Source: MesoWest
Siren, WI: 1.01″
French River, MN: 0.97″
Shell Lake, WI: 0.83″
Winter, WI: 0.81″
Glidden, WI: 0.80″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.76″
Ashland, WI: 0.74″
Spooner, WI: 0.66″
Duluth Airport: 0.61″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.61″
Minong, WI: 0.57″
Poplar, WI: 0.56″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.55″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.46″
Hayward, WI: 0.45″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.43″
Esko, MN: 0.41″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.39″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.37″
McGregor, MN: 0.37″
Deer River, MN: 0.35″
Isabella, MN: 0.32″
The Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 0.31″
Superior Airport: 0.28″
Orr, MN: 0.27″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.25″
Hinckley, MN: 0.20″
International Falls, MN: 0.20″
Bigfork, MN: 0.16″
Hill City, MN: 0.14″
Brainerd, MN: 0.06″
Ely, MN: 0.04″
Walker, MN: 0.04″
Here’s a look at radar rainfall estimates over the past 12 hours ending at 3 PM Saturday, September 23, 2023.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Sunday.
Mid and upper-level low pressure located over western South Dakota this afternoon will move into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota on Sunday, and then will see this upper low drop south/southeast as it eventually starts to pull away from the Northland as it heads into Iowa by Tuesday.
NAM 500mb forecast through 7 AM Tuesday, September 26, 2023.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Saturday, September 23, 2023 (loop time ends 3:20 PM CT)
Thanks for reading!
Tim