6:11 PM Tuesday, December 19, 2023
*Slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday with blustery northeast winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph near Lake Superior.
*A few lake effect snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle possible Wednesday-early Thursday near Lake Superior especially along the North Shore. Snow accumulations of a trace to 1″ possible.
*Highs in the 30s and 40s Thursday through Christmas Day.
*Record or near record warmth possible this weekend.
*Low chance for a system to impact the Northland with rain and possibly some snow December 24-26.
*No signs of any arctic air impacting the Northland through the end of the month.
The streak is over!
On Monday, Duluth recorded its first below average temperature since November 28.
The average temperature of 15 degrees in Duluth on Monday was just -1 degree below average for December 18, but regardless it was below average for a change.
As winds shift to the east/northeast on Wednesday this could cause a few lake effect snow showers or perhaps some patchy light freezing drizzle to develop near Lake Superior especially along the North Shore, but no significant snow or ice accumulations are expected.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.
CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK
We could see some precipitation in the Northland over the Christmas holiday but with a split flow in place (common in El Nino winters) this makes the storm track very uncertain this far out.
Energy to the north and more energy to the south (marked with an X on the map) while a broad trough moves east out of the Rockies is the basic pattern will be seeing this weekend into early next week.
A low-pressure system is forecast to move east out of the central/southern Rockies this weekend, but the track of this system is uncertain, but if this system tracks far enough to the north, then we could see some precipitation in parts of the Northland from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day, and possibly even into Tuesday of next week, but with mild temperatures in place, a lot of the precipitation would likely fall as rain in our area. Stay tuned for updates.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EPS model is definitely running colder next week across parts of the central and southern Plains compared to the GEFS model, but both models continue to show warmer than average temperatures persisting in the Northland next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 25-30, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 25-30, 2023.
Oldest model run is days 9-13 and the newest model run is days 7-11 on the loop below.
Orange, red and pink colors: Above normal temperatures.
Thanks for reading!
Tim