5:42 PM Wednesday, January 17, 2024
- Today marked the 6th day in a row with a below average temperature in Duluth, and this streak of below normal temperatures should continue for a few more days.
- 6 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth. Average in January is 14 subzero nights.
- Clipper system brings some snow to southern Minnesota Thursday, but this system will miss the Northland to the south.
- No major storms showing up in the models through much of next week.
- Warmer pattern takes over next week.
A very cold pattern continues today with widespread arctic air across the northern U.S. into Canada with 850mb temperatures as low as -20 to -27C this afternoon. This cold pattern will remain in place through Saturday.
Ice coverage is starting to increase a bit on Lake Superior due to the recent cold spell with ~5% of Lake Superior covered by ice as of January 16, 2024, but this is still well below normal for this time of the year (normal in mid-January is around 17%).
A few flurries and light snow showers will be found in parts of the Northland tonight with minimal snow accumulations.
Then on Thursday will see some snow move southeast across southern Minnesota with up to 2 inches of snow expected, meanwhile lake effect snow showers will increase along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan Thursday into Friday with several inches of snow expected in that area.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Friday.
A much warmer pattern continues to show up in the computer models for next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid January 21-26, 2024.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid January 21-26, 2024.
Oldest model run is days 7-11 and the newest model run is days 5-9 on the loop below.
Orange and red colors: Above normal temperatures
10-Day temperature forecast for Duluth.
Highs in the single digits above zero Thursday and Friday, warming into the teens this weekend, and warming even more next week with highs in the 30s.
A couple more subzero nights ahead, the coldest likely Friday night/Saturday morning.
Long term snow trends don’t look very promising if you want a more significant snow event in the Northland.
EPS model 15-day snowfall forecast for Duluth through January 31st.
Out of the 50 members, there’s only 3 members showing 6 or more inches of snow through the end of the month, the other 47 members are somewhere in the 0.2-to-4-inch range.
GEFS model 20-member snowfall forecast has 5 out of 20 members with 6 or more inches of snow (highlighted in red on the map below) in Duluth through January 31st.
And finally, here’s the NWS Blend of Models total snowfall forecast through January 27th.
Thanks for reading!
Tim