4:56 PM Sunday, May 5, 2024
The Northland will experience dry conditions on Monday, with rain anticipated to make a return by Tuesday.
Rain is expected to start in the Duluth area between 8 AM and 11 AM on Tuesday, continuing through much of the afternoon before ceasing later that day.
A shift in weather patterns is expected later this week, with a northwest flow likely to establish itself across the upper Midwest. Despite this change, it’s anticipated that a few northwest flow systems and their associated cold fronts will sporadically traverse the region, potentially bringing isolated to scattered rain showers to the Northland over the upcoming weekend.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.
In the Northland, rainfall ranging from approximately 0.10 inches to an inch is expected on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The higher quantities are likely to occur in east central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and areas adjacent to Lake Superior.
Reduced rainfall is anticipated in the northern regions, encompassing International Falls and Grand Marais areas.
The presence of clouds and anticipated rain on Tuesday is likely to result in cooler temperatures in the area, in contrast to locations further north and south, where less rain and some sunshine are expected, leading to warmer conditions.
Along with the clouds and rain, a cool and breezy east wind is expected near Lake Superior, with gusts reaching approximately 25 mph.
A deep and massive trough is moving east across the western United States today. This system is expected to lead to a potential severe weather outbreak in the central and southern Plains on Monday, and it will also bring additional rain to the Northland by Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, May 5, 2024, loop time ends 4:35 PM CT.
A typical scenario for severe thunderstorms is expected on Monday, with a dryline forming over the central and southern Plains. To the east of this dryline, there will be deep moisture with dew points ranging from the mid-60s to the low 70s. However, west of the dryline, the air will be significantly drier, with dew points in the single digits to the low 20s.
The convergence at the dryline, marked by southeast winds ahead and southwest winds behind, is expected to trigger numerous supercell thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening.
A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms is forecasted for Monday in parts of southern Kansas and central Oklahoma, with a broader area facing either an enhanced or slight risk of severe weather conditions.
Numerous severe thunderstorms are anticipated on Monday throughout the central and southern Plains. The forecast suggests a likelihood of multiple intense and possibly long-tracked tornadoes, extremely large hail, and severe wind damage.
Strong tornadoes may occur Monday afternoon through evening, particularly in the designated hatched area on the map provided.
The U.S. has experienced 583 tornadoes this year, surpassing the average of 531 by May 4th.
Note: The average annual number of tornadoes in the US is 1,382.
The average number of tornadoes in May from 1998 to 2022.
Minnesota: 8
Wisconsin: 3
The upcoming week looks to be busy with the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Tuesday’s risk area
Wednesday’s risk area
The Northland experienced seasonable temperatures this afternoon, with readings mostly in the low to mid-60s. Additionally, the winds were light, providing a pleasant change for today.
Today’s highs and departure from normal for May 5th
Brainerd: 67/+3 degrees above normal
Ashland: 66/+6 degrees above normal
Duluth: 64/+5 degrees above normal
International Falls: 64/+4 degrees above normal
Hibbing: 61/+2 degrees above normal
Warmer temperatures are anticipated on Monday, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Northland. However, a stronger east wind will likely keep temperatures around the 40s within approximately 15 miles of Lake Superior.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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