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1/13/09: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 8:06 PM CST, Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

Here are some snowfall totals around Minnesota from Monday, January 12th, 2009…

Red Wing: 6.8″

Faribault: 6.0″

Lakeville: 5.8″

Willmar: 5.0″

Minneapolis: 4.7″

Chanhassen: 4.3″

Glencoe: 4.0″

Redwood Falls: 3.5″

Albert Lea: 3.5″

Owatonna: 3.5″

St. Cloud: 2.2″

Milaca: 1.0″

Dodge Center: 6.0″

Preston: 4.1″

Caledonia: 5.3″

Rochester Airport: 5.0″

Wabasha: 5.6″

Zumbro Falls: 5.1″

Breckenridge: 3.0″

Surface Analysis at 00z:

Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered over Northern Nebraska with a ridge of arctic high pressure averaging 1024-1026 mb centered to the southeast of Minnesota while the next arctic high with a pressure of 1034 mb builds south-southeast into Eastern Saskatchewan Province. Pressure falls ahead of that Nebraska low were around 1-2 mb/2 hours with pressure rises behind the low in the 1-2 mb/2 hour range.

Upper Air Analysis at 00z:

Northwesterly flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a ridge of high pressure centered just off the U.S. West Coast. Strong jet stream winds of 100-125 knots stretched from Westcentral Canada down to the Dakotas or on the front side of this high pressure ridge. 850 mb analysis at 00z revealed a very tight thermal gradient around the region with temperatures ranging from +2 to +10 degrees C from Central Montana through the Central Rockies and out into the Western High Plains on up into Western-Southern South Dakota with -10 to -15 degree C 850 mb temps centered over Southwest Minnesota and -20 to -24 degree C 850 mb temps over Northern areas of the state. 850 mb temp here at Duluth was -20 degrees C at 8 PM CT.

The combination of strong warm advection taking place ahead of the Nebraska low working in conjunction with some good surface frontogeneis and convergence is resulting in an area of snow which is moderate to heavy at times This Evening over far Southwest Minnesota through Iowa while areas of mainly light snow covered parts of Southern and Northwest Minnesota. Movement of the snow was to the east-southeast.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 8 PM Tonight ranged from -20 degrees at Warroad to -13 degrees at Grand Rapids to -26 degrees at Ely to -9 degrees at Little Falls to 1 above at Pipestone to -6 degrees at Owatonna.

Partly cloudy skies covered Northern parts of the state This Evening while overcast conditions were common elsewhere. Winds around the state were calm or variable under 5 mph across Northern Minnesota with easterly winds around 5 to 20 mph elsewhere. Wind chills around Minnesota were in the single digits, teens, 20s, to low 30s below zero as of Mid-Evening.

Tonight:

*Winter Weather Advisory* covers the Southern half of Minnesota…

*Wind Chill Warning* covers parts of Northern Minnesota…

*Wind Chill Advisory* covers the Northwest half of Minnesota along with areas of far Western and Southwest Minnesota…

Low pressure will be passing south and southeast of Minnesota Tonight. This system will continue to produce some snow over Western-Southern areas of the state with some flurries or light snow possible from Northwest through Central Minnesota. The majority of the snow will end from west to east later Tonight. Total snow accumulations are forecast to range from 2 to 5 inches across Southern Minnesota with generally 1 to around 3 inches possible West and under an inch Northwest and Central areas.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover the state Tonight with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible North. North, northwest, or east winds will occur Tonight generally around 20 mph or less. Wind chills will range from around 15 below to 45 below around the state Tonight.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

*Wind Chill Warning* covers Northern areas of Minnesota Wednesday…

*Wind Chill Advisory* covers parts of Northwest, Western, and Southwest Minnesota through Wednesday Night…

Strong arctic high pressure around 1047 mb will build south into the Dakotas during this period. This second high will be stronger than the first one by about 12-15 mb. Look for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies around Minnesota on Wednesday with mostly clear skies Wednesday Night. High temps on Wednesday will range from around 5 above to 20 below with lows Wednesday Night ranging from 10 below to 30 below with 30 below to 40 below readings expected across the North. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less. Wind chills will be in the 15 below to 35 below range around the state through this period with 35 below to 50 below wind chills at times across the North.

Extended Forecast:

A very amplified upper level weather pattern will form around our region later this week through the weekend. The heart of the extreme cold looks like it’ll shift into Eastern Canada during that time while low pressure systems travel northwest to south-southeast to the west of this bitter cold airmass. Those areas of low pressure could bring some snow to parts of Minnesota on occasion beginning on Friday and lasting off an on through the weekend. At this time it appears that the system coming through Friday and Friday Night has the best potential at producing an inch or two of new snow to Northern-Eastern portions of Minnesota.

So as the heart of the cold shifts east, an upper level ridge will try to nudge east toward Minnesota, although right now it appears that this ridge will not be able to penetrate into Minnesota through the weekend, so we will remain susceptible to see cold air shots with the passage of each low, although the bitter cold air should remain off to our northeast during the weekend.

This upper level ridge of high pressure may for a time push east-southeast into Minnesota during the early or mid part of next week which could result in warming temps, but there are indications that more arctic air could drop south into Minnesota later next week, possibly lasting off an on through the remainder of January.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Very cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 below to 22 below. Wind variable under 5 mph, becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight. Wind chills ranging from 30 below to 40 below.

.Wednesday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 9 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 15 below to 30 below.

.Wednesday Night… Bitter cold. Clear. Low 16 below to 24 below. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills 30 below to 45 below.

.Thursday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 above to 6 below.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 22 below.

.Friday… Increasing clouds. Light snow or flurries possible. High zero to 5 below. Chance of snow 20%.

.Friday Night… Light snow or flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 17 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -2 degrees

8 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: -9.6 degrees

Dewpoint: -19 degrees

Humidity: 60%

Wind: N at 2 mph G 4 mph

Max Temperature Today: -1.3 degrees

Min Temperature Today: -22.7 degrees

Tim
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