Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Monday, March 16th, 2009
Weather History:
On this date in 1995, a record high temperature of 57 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 2000, 6.1″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
Note: As of 3 PM CDT Today, the Duluth Airport was 6 degrees off from reaching the record high temperature of 60 degrees which was set in 2003.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:
(Today’s Weather)
Low pressure averaging 1000 mb was centered over Western Manitoba at 19z. A cold front attached to this low was heading east and south across Eastern North Dakota and Northern South Dakota This Afternoon with a warm front centered over the North half of Minnesota. Temperatures for the third day in a row have risen nicely across our area with highs Today in the 50s and low 60s with cooler 30s and 40s, mainly closer to Lake Superior. Dewpoints This Afternoon have climbed into the 30s and 40s over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with winds out of the south or southeast at 10 to 25 mph across the entire area. The cold front to our west has been generating some radar returns This Afternoon over far Northwest Minnesota into Western North Dakota, but none of this has been reaching the ground.
(Today’s Upper Air Analysis)
West to southwest H5 flow was in place over our area Today with a potent shortwave with 90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls heading east into Manitoba. A fast Pacific flow was occurring across the Northern Rockies and Northwest U.S. Today with H3 winds up to 120-130 knots Today per RUC model analysis. 850 mb temperatures around the area ranged from +6 to +8 degrees C This Afternoon with colder air and -6 to -10 degree C 850 mb temps beginning to build over portions of Central-Western Canada behind a secondary cold front which was heading south-southeast out of Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan Province Today.
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Low pressure will pass off to the northwest and north of our area during this period. A warm front will be lifting north-northeast across the area Tonight with a cold front then passing west to east across the area from late Tonight through early Tuesday Afternoon. It still looks like this weather system will come through dry, but a secondary cold front dropping southeast into Northern Minnesota could spit out some snow flurries or light snow showers later Tuesday Night, mainly over Northern parts of Minnesota. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area during this period with some patchy haze or fog possible Tonight into early Tuesday, pretty similar to what some areas saw earlier Today. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible close to Lake Superior. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 60s again possible, especially in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, east, or west around 15 mph or less. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday Night will shift into the west and north at 10 to 20 mph.
(Extended Forecast)
A secondary cold front will be passing south-southeast across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with an area of high pressure building into the area from the northwest behind this boundary. Look for this high to slide off to the north and eventually to the east of our area by later this week. Could see some early Wednesday flurries over parts of Northern Minnesota, otherwise it looks mainly dry around the area from Wednesday into Friday. The period from Friday Night through early next week could turn pretty wet at times around the area as a trough develops out West. Exact details on how all this will play out will be fine tuned in the coming days, but right now it looks rainy at times from this weekend into early next week. Were also gonna have to watch out for the potential for the first thunderstorm outbreak over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later in the weekend or early next week as the main low pressure system heads this way. The track of the low/intensity/and timing of the storm will determine what area/s could see some thunderstorm activity. The 12z GFS from Today does show some surface and elevated instability developing over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late this weekend and early next week with some decent winds aloft of around 50 knots at 500 mb and 35-45 knots at 850 mb. Again this is very far out in the forecast range, but it will be something to keep an eye on this week.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 47 to 54. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 37 to 43.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 16 to 21.
.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
Normal High Temperature Today 34 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 16 degrees
Tim
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