Issued at 4:11 PM CDT, Wednesday August 19th, 2009
Weather History:
On this date in 2004… A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
A strong Summer storm continued to move into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with low pressure of 1002 mb centered over Western Minnesota with another 1002 mb low centered over Southern Manitoba Province. A cold front was pushing south-east across the Eastern Dakotas This Afternoon with a warm front centered over Southern Minnesota. Rain heavy at times along with embedded thunderstorms have been occurring Today across Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin while a small part of Northern Minnesota stayed mainly dry through late Today. High temperatures across our area were mainly in the 60s and lower 70s Today with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures around +12 degrees C. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.20″-1.50″. Overcast skies covered the area Today with winds out of the south or east at 10 up to 20 mph.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
An unusually strong H5 trough was digging south-east into the Northern Plains Today with 30-60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring on the south-east side of the trough over the Upper Midwest. A 100 knot H3 jet streak extended from Western Saskatchewan Province south to Eastern Montana or on the west side of the upper trough while a potent lead shortwave continued to lift north-east out of Southern Minnesota.
(Tonight)
Rain wrapped isolated tornado risk exists before 10 PM Tonight over southern parts of our area…or from Pine County Minnesota east through Southern Douglas…Burnett…Washburn…and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. 1km SRH up to 200 m2/s2 and 3km SRH up to 300 m2/s2 combined with 30 knots of 1km Bulk Shear and 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will offset an otherwise stable environment to produce a risk for thunderstorm elements that will be favorable to produce quick tornado spin-ups early This Evening.
A large area of rain with embedded thunder along with locally heavy downpours will persist before Midnight across Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure moves into Central Minnesota Tonight while a warm front lifts northeast toward Central Wisconsin with an occluded front pushing east into the Upper Midwest.
Areas of showers will likely persist into the Overnight hours with isolated thunderstorms possible as well mainly in southern parts of our area.
Overcast skies with areas of fog are anticipated Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Look for south, east, or north winds at 10-20 mph.
(Thursday and Thursday Night)
Low pressure will slowly exit to our east during this period while a strong H5 trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies with areas of rain are expected across our area Thursday and Thursday Night with an isolated risk for thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows mainly in the 50s Thursday Night. Winds will be out of the north, east, or west at 10-25 mph during this period.
(Extended Forecast)
A light rain/drizzle risk could persist into Friday Morning across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure and upper level trough continued to push farther and farther away from our local area which will allow high pressure to build into the Upper Midwest beginning Friday Afternoon and lingering into the weekend. High temps Friday will be in the 60s with some 70s possible toward the Walker/Brainerd areas. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
*Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory* in effect until 845 PM CDT This Evening.
.Tonight… Rain with heavy downpours along with isolated thunderstorms This Evening. Scattered showers lingering Overnight. Areas of fog. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance for rain decreasing to 50% after 8 PM.
.Thursday… Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
.Thursday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday… Showers possible during the Morning. Mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday Night… Clearing. Low 48 to 53.
.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.
.Saturday Night… Fair. Low 48 to 53.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77.
Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees
Tim
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