Issued at 4:42 PM CST, Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009
Weather History:
On this date last year, the Morning low temperature at the Duluth Airport was -17 degrees.
On this date in 1989 and in 1983… A record low temperature of -22 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Note: Areas of clearing combined with light winds caused some bitter cold temps across parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Morning even as low clouds persisted in the Twin Ports which kept readings in the teens to low 20s! Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today, Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009. Source: NWS Duluth MN.
Hibbing MN: -1 degree
Silver Bay MN: -6 degrees
Ely MN: -11 degrees
Cook MN: -9 degrees
Aitkin MN: -2 degrees
Hayward WI: -8 degrees
Phillips WI: -8 degrees
Bruno MN: -2 degrees
Embarrass MN: -13 degrees
2 miles South of Tower MN: -10 degrees
Butternut WI: -7 degrees
Storm Update:
A potentially dangerous and long lasting winter storm is set to affect much of the Northern Plains…Upper Midwest…And Central Plains from Wednesday through Saturday.
A storm of this magnitude does not happen very often, and from a model perspective this system looks very impressive. What’s equally impressive are the different elements of this storm which are forecast to phase together in the coming days.
Models have remained very consistent on a more westerly and northerly storm track over the past few days, but there’s still that outside chance that this system will end up less phased and or track farther south or east than what has been shown in recent days…However, with that said it’s becoming more apparant that most of our local area will receive a major winter storm later this week.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
High pressure of 1032 mb was centered across Westcentral Ontario Province This Afternoon while a couple areas of low pressure of 998-1008 mb were centered across the Southwest U.S…Southern Rockies…And Southern Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with a few flurries at times along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the teens and 20s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures ranging from -8 to -11 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the east under 20 mph.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
An amazing water vapor satellite imagery Today revealing all the key components to this developing storm. The first piece of this storm can be found across Western Arizona…Southeast Nevada…And Southwest Utah while additional energy associated with a jet max of 120 knots dives south-southeast through California early This Evening. The third and final piece of this storm was found way up in Northwestern Canada where additional upper level energy was heading south-east through British Columbia and Western Alberta Province. To our east a blocking pattern was in place and this blocking to our northeast will help force this storm on a more westerly track instead of the system charging off to the east. The greatest 12 hour 500 mb height falls Today of 90-150 meters were found over the Four Corners region south into Northern Mexico.
(Tonight)
Strong high pressure around 1033 mb will remain to our north while low pressure continues to track through the Southern Rockies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our local area Tonight with some flurries or lake effect snow showers possible at times along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly from Silver Bay up through Grand Marais and Grand Portage. The overall lake effect set-up is marginal and as a result snow accumulations should be light and generally under 1″. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens but a few spots could drop below zero once again, similar to what happened last night. Winds Tonight will be out of the east under 15 mph.
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)
High pressure will strengthen to around 1036 mb as it remains well to our north-northeast during this period while low pressure heads east into the Southcentral Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with mainly overcast conditions for most areas by Wednesday Night. Lake effect flurries or a few snow showers could persist during this period Minnesota’s North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly from Silver Bay through Grand Marais and Grand Portage, snow amounts will remain under 1″.
Snow associated with the Southern Plains storm should lift north and begin to overspread Southern parts of our local area by Wednesday Night.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the east at 10-20 mph.
(Extended Forecast)
Low pressure will continue to organize most likely in Missouri on Thursday while additional energy spreads south-east out of the Northern Rockies later this week which will help in deepening this storm system. Low pressure is forecast to be over Central or Eastern Iowa on Friday and will lift northeast toward Northern-Eastern parts of Wisconsin on Saturday.
A strong low level jet of 30-45 knots will be found on the north/east flank of the surface low from Thursday into Friday which will pump deep moisture north-west into the Upper Midwest. PWS are expected to increase to .50″ to as high as .75″ across our local area later this week which is very high for December.
Upper level jet is also forecast to strengthen to 70-100 knots right over the Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday which should result in a tremendous amount of lift across our area. In fact there may be enough lift in place combined with mid level lapse rates of 6.0-7.0 c/km to produce some thunder to go along with the heavier bands of snow from Thursday into Friday.
Warmer air wrapping around the surface low (H85 temps from +1 to -2 degrees C) could result in some sleet…freezing rain…or freezing drizzle to go along with the snow especially in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly through the Twin Ports and south through Pine County from Thursday into Friday.
Also, it remains to be seen if any part/s of our area would be affected by the dry slot as this system matures toward Friday.
Should the dry slot move into our area or if we see more of a mix bag of precipitation, then snowfall totals would be somewhat less than what is expected at this time.
Right now it looks like all of our area would see at least 6″ of snow between Thursday and Saturday but there will be an area who will get 12″ or more of snow. The highest snow totals appear likely in Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota based on the latest information from the computer models Today.
Easterly winds will increase to 10-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph for Thursday and Friday across our area and this will result in near white-out conditions at times due to the falling snow.
Travel across our local area will become more and more difficult on Thursday with dangerous driving conditions persisting through early Saturday the way it looks now. Avoid travel if at all possible.
High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s and 30s across our area with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the teens, 20s, to around 30 degrees.
Note: This snowfall later this week will have lots of water to it with snow ratios generally in the 10:1 or even 5:1 range which is very low. The 12z NAM/WRF model run from Today cranked out between 1.21″-1.61″ of liquid precip at Duluth with the 12z GFS model from Today cranking out 1.40″. These totals are thru late Friday Afternoon. Snow amounts out of these totals using a 10:1 or 5:1 ratio would fall in the 8-16″ range.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
*WINTER STORM WATCH* IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy with snow developing after 3 AM. Snow accumulations under 1″ by dawn. Low 15 to 20. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 50%.
.Christmas Eve… Windy with snow along with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow could be heavy at times. High 24 to 27. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Thursday Night… Windy with occasional snow along with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow could be heavy at times. Some freezing drizzle or sleet is also possible. Temperatures holding nearly steady between 24 to 27. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Christmas Day… Windy with occasional snow along with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Some freezing drizzle or sleet is also possible. High 27 to 31. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Friday Night… Occasional snow. Low 18 to 23. Chance of snow 70%.
.Saturday… Lingering light snow and flurries. Total storm accumulations between Thursday and Saturday up to 12″. High 23 to 27. Chance of snow 50%.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 20 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 3 degrees
Tim
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