Issued at 4:33 PM CDT, Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
A cold start to the day across parts of our area. Here are some low temperatures from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today.
Duluth MN: 26 degrees
Hibbing MN: 17 degrees
Silver Bay MN: 16 degrees
Ashland WI: 19 degrees
Superior WI: 21 degrees
Embarrass MN: 18 degrees
7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: 17 degrees
Weather tidbits:
*The high temperature of 39 degrees at Duluth, MN on Wednesday, April 21st, 2010 ended our streak of consecutive days with an Above Normal High Temperature at 26 days. The period from March 26th thru April 20th featured Above Normal High Temperatures every day! The 39 degree high temperature on Wednesday was actually 13 degrees Below Normal for the 21st of April.
*Another streak, this one 27 days in a row with an Above Normal High Temperature in Duluth, MN occurred from February 26th thru March 24th, but similar to this past streak, this one was also interrupted by one day that featured a Below Normal High Temperature which came on March 25th when the high temperature was 29 degrees!
*Severe weather outbreak is forecast across much of the Central/Southern Plains as well as the Ohio Valley region during the next three days. This will be the first real big severe weather outbreak of 2010 and will feature the potential of long track dangerous tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail!
First Spring without measurable snowfall at Duluth, MN? Source: NWS Duluth, MN.
So far this Spring only a trace of snow has fallen at Duluth, MN. Never has a Spring season failed to produce measurable snowfall in Duluth. Only 8 April’s have recorded a trace or less of snowfall. April 2010 would be the 9th. The last time this occurred was in 2006. The rest are: 1976, 1938, 1905, 1901, 1899, 1897, and 1892. Only 1 year (1938) out of those 8 produced a measurable snowfall in May. Overall, there have been 43 May’s with measurable snowfall out of 119 on record, or about 1 in 3 May’s has had measurable snow. In fact, May 1954 had the most days with measurable snow in Duluth with 6.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
All is quiet around our area once again Today with high pressure of 1012-1014 mb off to our east providing the area with mainly sunny skies with warmer temperatures for most areas. Highs Today were mainly in the 60s, but 40s and 50s were common near Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to +6 degrees from northeast to southwest across our area. Winds Today were variable or east under 15 mph. A very dry airmass continued to sit on top of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with Afternoon dewpoints holding in the teens and some 20s with relative humidity levels of 10-30%. Note: Fire Danger continues to be Very High across all of Northern Minnesota Today with High and Very High Fire Danger also affecting all of Northwest Wisconsin. Surface map late This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1002 mb centered in Western Ontario Province with a cold front attached to this low extending from Central Manitoba Province east through Central Ontario Province. Low pressure centers of 994-1000 mb covered the Rockies Today.
Today’s 500 mb analysis:
Split flow continued once again Today across the U.S. Northwest upper level flow covered the Upper Midwest, Northeast U.S., and Central/Eastern Canada while a large upper level low pressure system covered the Central-Southern Rockies and Southwest U.S. with a 100-120 knot jet streak noted per RUC model late Today on the S/SE side of this system across Southern New Mexico and Northern Mexico.
Tonight:
Mainly clear skies will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure to our east while low pressure and a cold front remain to our north. Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in the typical cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night:
Partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected in our area on Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s, but it will be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. By Friday Night, look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with the potential for a few showers in Southern areas later in the night as strong low pressure around 991 mb heads slowly east toward the Western High Plains. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.
Extended Forecast:
Strong low pressure around 990 mb will be tracking E/NE across the Central Plains to south of Chicago Illinois this weekend while high pressure stregthens across Hudson Bay Canada. The pressure gradient will tighten between the low to our S/SE and high to our north which will lead to some gusty easterly winds around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this weekend. The models still are not in very good agreement Today as to whether or not we see some rain Saturday through Sunday as that storm tracks across the Plains. Right now it appears that Southern areas, or from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward and Park Falls would have the greater chance for some weekend rain, while Northern areas remain generally dry. This could change though. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s, but 40s are expected near Lake Superior and also in areas that see more extensive cloud-cover/rainfall. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Looking ahead to the period from late next week through next weekend (April 29th-May 1st) could feature a rather potent storm system tracking east out of the Western U.S. The exact details and timing of this system will be uncertain for several more days, but it should be noted that the GFS and EUROPEAN models continue to show this storm on Today’s model run, although the tracks are different between the two models. EUROPEAN is more NW/N while the GFS is farther S/E. This storm could bring wind and rainy conditions to our area, perhaps even some thunderstorm activity and maybe even a little wet snow should the GFS verify with it’s colder outcome, although the snow part seems like a very low probability at this point.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 31 to 36. Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.
Normal High Temperature Today 53 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 32 degrees
Tim
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