Issued at 7:39 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 19th, 2011
Local Storm Report from July 19th, 2011.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
*12:45 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 50 mph. 10 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)
*2:10 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 5 miles east of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County) 9″ trees snapped. Large oak tree down on power line.
*2:28 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Mahtowa, MN (Carlton County) Numerous maple trees down.
*2:10 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 4 miles south of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County) Several trees snapped off over Highway 73.
*6:00 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 5 miles northwest of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County) Many 16″ diameter maples snapped off. Large oak topped and large oak uprooted.
*6:00 PM CDT 7/19/11: 2.00″ HAIL. 5 miles northwest of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)
*6:10 PM CDT 7/19/11: 1.75″ HAIL. Birchwood, WI (Washburn County)
*5:57 PM CDT 7/19/11: 1.25″ HAIL. 3 miles south of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)
*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11: 1.00″ HAIL. 8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) Winds estimated at 50-60 mph.
*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11: HEAVY RAIN. 2.15″. 12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)
*5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) Power out in the town of Hayward.
5:40 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 54 mph. Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)
*5:15 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 6 miles southwest of Gordon, WI (Douglas County) Large tree down on Smith Bridge Road.
*5:10 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 59 mph. 5 miles south of Minong, WI (Washburn County) Trees down along Highway 53.
*4:52 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 1 mile south of Chaffey, WI (Douglas County) Small tree branches blowing over on Highway 53.
*3:00 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 2 miles east of Cromwell, MN (Carlton County) Several 9″ diameter trees down.
*4:55 PM CDT 7/19/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 1 mile south of Chaffey, MN (Douglas County) Tree uprooted at Wayside Rest.
High temperature report for Monday, July 18th, 2011.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Duluth, MN: 92 degrees
International Falls, MN: 93 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 92 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 92 degrees
Hayward, WI: 92 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: 90 degrees
Ely, MN: 91 degrees
Orr, MN: 93 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 93 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 93 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 91 degrees
Cloquet, MN: 91 degrees
Siren, WI: 93 degrees
Phillips, WI: 91 degrees
Bruno, MN: 91 degrees
Cass Lake, MN: 91 degrees
Babbitt, MN: 93 degrees
Cook, MN: 92 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN: 92 degrees
Rainfall report for Monday through about 6 AM CDT Tuesday, July 18th-19th, 2011.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Grand Marais, MN: 0.18″
Ashland, WI: 0.24″
Gull Lake Dam, MN: 0.61″
3 miles south of Ashland, WI: 0.36″
Highbridge, WI: 0.35″
Weather Tidbits:
*21 tornado reports in North Dakota on July 16th and 17th, 2011. (SPC)
*Record low temperature This Morning at Jacksonville, FL: 65 degrees. (TWC)
*84 degree dewpoint Today at Minneapolis/St. Paul. Higher than the dewpoint at Qatar and Dubai, 78 degrees. Minot, ND also had a higher dewpoint than Dubai Today (TWC)
*88 degree dewpoint and a 130 degree heat index at Moorhead, MN Today
*78 million people affected by some sort of heat advisory/warning Today. (TWC)
Peak Heat Index values around Minnesota at 3:00 PM CDT Today.
Twin Cities: 116 degrees
Eden Prairie: 121 degrees
Hallock: 111 degrees
Moorhead: 121 degrees
Willmar: 117 degrees
St. Cloud: 107 degrees
Buffalo: 111 degrees
Redwood Falls: 112 degrees
New Ulm: 113 degrees
Owatonna: 113 degrees
Rochester: 111 degrees
WEATHER HEADLINES:
-Scattered thunderstorm/severe risk continues into Wednesday Evening
-Heat and a strong cap moves in on Wednesday
-Much drier dewpoints return on Thursday
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
It’s been a stormy day across portions of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as a warm front lifted north into Central Minnesota Today. Extreme amounts of instability, heat and moisture west/south of that boundary was advecting north into our area Today and this spawned clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms north/east of the warm frontal boundary. Damaging wind, large hail, deadly lightning and torrential rainfall have been the main hazards out of these storms Today, but late This Afternoon an isolated tornado risk developed in Pine County Minnesota and in Burnett County Wisconsin. Due to the clouds and precipitation Today high temperatures didn’t get out of the 70s and 80s with dewpoints generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds Today were out of the southeast under 20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Strong 500mb trough covered the Pacific Northwest with a southwest H5 flow east of this trough covering the Rockies and Northern Plains per RUC model analysis. The Upper Midwest was in a fast W/NW 500mb flow Today as we sit just north of the core of the intense heat dome in the Plains.
Tonight:
Warm front analyzed in Central Minnesota early This Evening will lift north during the night. A S-SW low level jet approaching 40 knots will remain in place across our area while a cap consisting of +14 degree C H7 temperatures push farther E-NE into parts of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue most of the night as extreme amounts of instability, warmth and moisture feed N-NE into our area. Favorable amounts of shear in place will lead to a severe weather risk with damaging wind and large hail the main threats along with dangerous lightning and heavy downpours. Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s with south or east winds under 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
Blast furnace type heat will be felt in most of the area on Wednesday as a warm front shifts north toward the Minnesota/Ontario border with a deep low passing well to our northwest with a cold front surging east into the Upper Midwest Wednesday Afternoon/Night. S-SW flow will intensify on Wednesday which will pump lots of warm air into the Northland. 850mb temperatures of +25 to +30 degrees C are forecast which will result in daytime highs reaching the 90s in most places with an isolated 100 degree temperature quite possible especially in Southern parts of our area. Dewpoints on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s and 70s and this combined with the hot temperatures will result in heat indices of 100-110 degrees in all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota. A strong cap will also cover the area on Wednesday with 700mb temperatures as warm as +16 degrees C! As the cold front approaches from the W-NW, there may be just enough forcing along it to break the cap, and if that happens explosive thunderstorm development would occur since the atmosphere will be full of energy Wednesday Afternoon/Evening. Latest model data suggests that CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg will be in place with Lifted Indices from -3 to -8 degrees C. Wind shear will also be present with about 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. Severe thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening if the cap can break, damaging wind and large hail would be the main risks along with dangerous lightning and heavy rainfall. The threat for convection will end from west to east Tomorrow Evening as the cold front moves away. Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 60s. South, southwest or southeast winds are expected on Wednesday at 15-30 mph with winds turning to the west Tomorrow Night at 15-30 mph.
Extended Forecast:
Mild temps, but much less humid conditions are on tap for Thursday as high pressure and a W-NW wind move in behind Wednesday’s cold front. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints dropping to the 50s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Thursday and Thursday Night. The next system looks to move into the Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, model agreement is not the best with this next system, but a risk for showers and thunderstorms does exist sometime between Friday and Sunday. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.
*EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING* continues until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Pine…Carlton…and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price Counties in Wisconsin.
*HEAT ADVISORY* continues until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Koochiching…Itasca…Central and Northern St. Louis Counties Minnesota.
*URBAN and SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY* is in effect for Central Itasca County Minnesota until 10:15 PM CDT Tonight.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
“EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING”
Timing: Until 10 PM CDT Wednesday.
.Tonight… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before Midnight. Variable cloudiness. Low 65 to 70. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Wednesday… Hot and humid. Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 91 to 96. Wind south to southwest at 15 to 30 mph. Heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees.
.Wednesday Night… Breezy. Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Low 63 to 68. Wind becoming west at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 77 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
Wednesday’s Pollen Forecast:
Grass: Low
Tree: None
Weed: None
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:34 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:55 PM CDT
Tim
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