Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Monday, July 25th, 2011
Local Storm Report from Saturday, July 23rd, 2011.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
*11:47 PM CDT 7/23/11: 1.00″ HAIL. 7 miles west-northwest of Phillips, WI (Price County) Occurred in Lugerville Township.
*10:55 AM CDT 7/23/11: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 51 mph. 5 miles southwest of Phillips, WI (Price County)
Weather History:
On this date in 1989: A record high temperature of 89 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
WEATHER HEADLINES:
-Pleasant summer weather Tonight and Tuesday
-Lake breeze returns Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior
-Possible rain/thunderstorm complex Tuesday Night-Wednesday
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
A weak surface trough continues to push S-SE Today and as of late This Afternoon this boundary extended from Northern Wisconsin back to Eastcentral Minnesota. Strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere covered our area Today along with high amounts of wind shear, instability and moisture is lacking, however with CAPE generally <1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices at -2 to around -5 degrees C. A few intense thunderstorms have been developing This Afternoon in Southern Upper Michigan and in Southwest Minnesota, but nothing much has been going on in between those two areas. Highs Today under partly to mostly sunny skies were in the middle 70s to middle 80s with dewpoints of 55 to around 60 degrees. Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 10-20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Strong 500mb trough/low was moving E-SE across Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. Fast northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of that system. 500mb ridge was in place from the Central-Southern Rockies, east through the Plains and Southern U.S. while a potent upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered the Pacific Northwest.
Tonight:
Trough will exit Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota early Tonight, might see a shower or thunderstorm pop up before 9PM in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise dry weather will be found in our area Tonight under partly cloudy skies. Lows will mainly be in the 50s but some 40s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.
Tuesday:
Area of high pressure will track across the Upper Midwest. Partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be turning cooler near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.
Tuesday Night:
High pressure will move off to our east while low pressure heads into the Northern Plains. A warm front attached to this low will lift E-NE into the Upper Midwest. Low level jet of around 40 knots will cause a warm/moist advection pattern with PWS climbing to between 1.00-1.75″ during the night. Elevated instability will also be on the rise Tuesday Night with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg in Southern areas. A cluster of thunderstorms, possibly severe or in the form of a bow echo are forecasted to develop in the Northern Plains Tuesday Afternoon, this area of storms will then propagate toward the east or east-southeast Tuesday Night. Severe weather potential for our local area looks rather low at this point as instability will be somewhat marginal, but the wind shear will be strong so some isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out mainly affecting Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, Pine Counties in Minnesota, and Burnett and Washburn Counties in Wisconsin. If severe weather develops, the main threat would be from damaging wind and possibly large hail. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning are also possible in the storms Tuesday Night. Expect skies to become mostly cloudy with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.
Extended Forecast:
A warm front will continue to move E-NE across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday while a cold front slides southeast across our area from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday. A threat for mainly Morning showers or thunderstorms does exist on Wednesday, thereafter it looks generally dry, although a few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop in spots Wednesday Afternoon and again on Thursday, but coverage should be much less compared to Tuesday Night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible around the Brainerd Lakes area. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs for Thursday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 54 to 59. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Becoming mostly cloudy. Rain developing late. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly during the Morning. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:
Tree: Low
Grass: Low
Weed: None
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:49 PM CDT
Tim
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