Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

-Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2am CDT Monday.  This watch includes Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Carlton…and Pine Counties in the Duluth area.  And Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

Hazards include:  2″ diameter hail and thunderstorm wind gusts to 75mph.

-All but the far Northeast part of Minnesota continues to be in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tonight per SPC.  Slight risk also includes all of Northwestern Wisconsin.

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.28″

International Falls, MN:  0.28″

Grand Marais, MN:  0.73″

Hibbing, MN:  0.84″

Ashland, WI:  0.43″

Hayward, WI:  0.26″

Cook, MN:  1.30″

Embarrass, MN:  1.07″

4 E of Island Lake, MN:  1.05″

3 E of Orr, MN:  1.36″

2 S of Tower, MN:  1.05″

Finland, MN:  0.96″

Butternut, WI:  0.26″

9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.25″

Webster, WI:  0.64″

-Rainfall map for Saturday.  Locations from Duluth north received anywhere from 1/4 to 1.50″ of rain on Saturday.

6/10:  88F/19 degrees above normal.

6/11:  74F/4 degrees above normal.

6/12:  64F/6 degrees below normal.

6/13:  74F/4 degrees above normal.

6/14:  63F/7 degrees below normal.

6/15:  79F/8 degrees above normal.

6/16:  72F/1 degree above normal.

6/10:  53F/5 degrees above normal.

6/11:  43F/5 degrees below normal.

6/12:  44F/4 degrees below normal.

6/13:  48F/1 degree below normal.

6/14:  54F/5 degrees above normal.

6/15:  60F/11 degrees above normal.

6/16:  54F/4 degrees above normal.

-Temperatures in Duluth last week were around 2 degrees above average.

Note:  1.42″ of rain fell between June 10-16, 2012.

-A wetter week in the Twin Ports.  Rainfall totals last week were close to 200% above the average.

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 93 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 2000:  A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Strong low pressure of 998mb was over Southern Hudson Bay early This Evening.  Other strong lows of 992mb were over Eastern South Dakota with a 994mb low in Southeast Saskatchewan.  A very nice Morning and early Afternoon across our area with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Clouds did become more abundant during the Afternoon as warm air advection spreads northeast into our area.  There were some showers earlier in the Afternoon around the Brainerd Lakes.  A band of stronger thunderstorms then developed late This Afternoon from Leader to Brainerd to Aitkin.  These storms dropped some locally heavy rainfall.  Highs Today were mainly in the 70s with west or south winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

An unusually strong jet stream of 100-140 knots extended from Washington to Montana per RAP model analysis.  A west-southwest mid/upper level flow covered the Upper Midwest with strong upper level lows covering Northern Ontario and Southern parts of Saskatchewan.  Widespread 60-90 meter height falls were occurring early This Evening from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 6pm ranged from +18 to +20C in the Southern half of Minnesota to +12 to +16C in Northern and Central Minnesota.

A warm front currently in Southern Minnesota is expected to lift north, possibly reaching Central and Eastern Minnesota Overnight.  Numerous supercell thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in Western Minnesota early This Evening will track toward the east, generally near or slightly south of Interstate 94 Tonight.  A major wind damage threat could evolve just south of our local area as these supercells congeal into a bow echo and possible derecho during the night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur up in our area through the night as elevated instability continues to increase with CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -4C.  Plenty of moisture will be in place with PWS from 1.10-1.60″, dewpoints of 55-64F and 850mb dewpoints of +10 to +14C.  With all this moisture in place, there will be a threat for some heavy rainfall.  Shear of 30-50 knots over the Northland could support some storm organization, especially from Brainerd to Aitkin, south to Hinckley and Pine City, and east into Siren and the Hayward Lakes area…These locations could see a few severe thunderstorms Tonight with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

-HPC surface map for Tonight.  Expect a wet/stormy night in parts of the Northland as a warm front lifts slowly NE out of Southern Minnesota.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

A cold front will settle south/east through our area on Monday.  At this time it appears that the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms would be in Central/Eastern Wisconsin Monday Afternoon-Evening, although parts of Northwest Wisconsin…From Ashland to Hayward, Park Falls, and Hurley could be under the gun for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Monday Afternoon.  A few other showers or thunderstorms are possible in far Northern Minnesota on Monday.  The entire area should be dry Monday Night as the frontal boundary becomes stationary south of our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Monday’s high temperature forecast

-Surface map for Monday late Afternoon.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms should be south/east of our area, unless the cold front slows down, which doesn’t look very likely at this time.  (HPC)

Tuesday:  An area of low pressure will move northeast into the Upper Midwest with a warm front and cold front lifting N/NE.  Strong winds aloft, a decent low level jet, strong wind shear, and increasing amounts of instability should lead to the formation of some showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northland.  A few of the storms may become severe, especially from Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  Heavy rain will also be a threat.  Highs will range widely with 50s and 60s in Northeast Minnesota to the 80s in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, west to Pine City.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

-Front lifts back to the north on Tuesday, this front plus a wave of low pressure in Western MN could lead to areas of heavy rain/strong-severe thunderstorms in portions of the Northland.  (HPC)

Wednesday:  Low pressure will exit to our northeast while a cold front pushes off to our east.  Lingering showers are possible during the day with dry weather at night.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s.

Thursday:  Looks dry at this time with highs in the 60s and 70s.

-5 day rainfall forecast per HPC.  This is valid thru Friday, June 22nd, 2012.  Still looks like a wet week in most of Minnesota.  Heaviest corridor of rain in Southern, Central, and Northeast Minnesota.

Upper level pattern is still forecast to shift from the southwest to more of a west or west-northwest flow for the Upper Midwest.  There may be some disturbances embedded in this W/NW flow, and those features could produce some showers or thunderstorms at times during this period from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures will be near to above average through this period.

.Tonight…  Occasional showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

High:  72

Low:  50

Monday’s UV Index:  7.0/Medium

Tim