Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 27th, 2012
Tonight: Warm/muggy. Spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Warm, less humid with no rain.
Friday: Continued warm and not too humid.
Weather Tidbits:
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times
*105F at Denver, Colorado on Tuesday. 2nd day in a row with a high of 105F. This ties the all time record high temperature.
*111F at Miles City, Montana on Tuesday. Hottest temperature ever recorded.
*101F at Colorado Springs, Colorado on Tuesday. Hottest temperature ever recorded.
The heat is on across the Central Plains, here’s some of the warmer temperatures as of 4 PM Today.
-A plot of surface temps and dewpoints from the North Central U.S. as of 5 PM Today. Source: PSU e-WALL site.
Iowa:
Le Mars: 100F
Shenandoah: 102F
Nebraska:
Mc Cook: 107F
Grand Island: 102F
York: 103F
Norfolk: 102F
Lincoln: 102F
Kansas:
Goodland: 105F
Hill City: 115F
Hays: 111F
Russell: 113F
Salina: 109F
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A weak cold front has been moving east across the Upper Midwest Today. Warm and increasingly more humid air was found in our area with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees with cooler 60s and 70s in Superior and Downtown Duluth. Dewpoints as of late This Afternoon were generally in the 60s to lower 70s. The warmest heat index in the Northland as of 4 PM was at International Falls 93F. Winds Today were out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis show upper level troughs in the Northeast U.S., Pacific Northwest and Western Canada while a large upper level ridge covered areas from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +26C in Minnesota.
-500mb map as of 4 PM Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (June 27th)
A weak cold front will be moving through our area during the night. The atmosphere will be quite unstable along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE of 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -9C. It will also be capped with 700mb temperatures of +14 to +19C with only slow cooling expected to take place from NW-SE later in the night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms managed to develop This Afternoon even with the strongly capped air in parts of Northcentral Minnesota. Doppler radar rainfall estimates showed a quick quarter to half inch of rain in spots across Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Itasca Counties with totals >1.00 in parts of Northern Crow Wing County. This activity was beginning to fall apart as of late This Afternoon as it moves into Northeast Minnesota.
There remains the possibility that a few showers and thunderstorms will redevelop in our area Tonight, but the very warm temperatures aloft should keep convection on the spotty side.
Wind shear of 30-40 knots combined with mid level winds of around 40 knots and an upper level jet of 80-100 knots to our W/NW could cause some storm organization, if one were to develop Tonight.
Lows will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few locations may struggle to get below 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.
Dewpoints will remain in the 60s and 70s with drier air arriving from the northwest after Midnight.
-There is a 5% chance for damaging wind and large hail in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tonight. (SPC)
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Thursday and Thursday Night (June 28th)
A cold front will stall out well south of our area. A drier airmass will invade our area during this period with dewpoints in the 50s and PWATS <1.00". Partly cloudy skies are expected with highs on Thursday mainly in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (June 29th-July 1st)
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary south of Minnesota through this period. The deepest moisture and greatest instability will be tied up near this front, and that’s where the best chance for showers and thunderstorms should be during this period. The Northland will remain in a warm weather pattern with a west or west-northwest upper level flow, but dewpoints should be tolerable compared to locations farther south. This period looks pretty dry at this time, but a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, especially on Saturday. High temperatures from Friday through Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast (July 2nd-8th)
Next Monday (2nd) continues to look dry. Showers or thunderstorms are possible at times from the 3rd-8th, but once again no all day rain is expected, and not every day will be wet. Temperatures are forecast to be at or above average through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 62 to 67. Wind variable around 10 mph, becoming northwest Overnight. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday… Warm, but less humid. Mostly sunny. High 83 to 88. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 57 to 62. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 74
Low: 53
Sunrise Thursday: 5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 9:07 PM CDT
Tim
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