Issued at 8:33 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 26th, 2012
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy with mild temperatures.
Wednesday: Muggy and warm. Some sunshine.
Thursday: Still warm, but with lower humidity.
-The big weather story Today outside of the blazing heat has been taking place to our northwest where an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have occurred This Afternoon/Evening in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province. Here’s a water vapor satellite loop, notice the blobs of bright white clouds that blow up in Saskatchewan Province.
Weather Tidbits:
*State of Emergency for the Counties of Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland in Northwest Wisconsin due to last week’s flood per Governor Scott Walker. Source: Fox 21 news.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another very nice early summer day in the Northland with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the middle 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s at the Duluth Harbor. Dewpoints were mainly in the 50s. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
500mb troughs covered the Northeast U.S. and Northwest U.S. with a large ridge of high pressure in place from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, south through the Central-Southern Plains per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from +20 to +24C across Southern Minnesota to around +18C in the remainder of Minnesota.
-500mb map as of 7 PM This Evening
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (June 26th)
Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (June 27th)
Deep tropical moisture will flow into our area during this period with dewpoints reaching the 65-75 degree range. PWATS will climb to 1.25-1.75″ with 850mb dewpoints of +14 to +22C. A cold front will move east and through our area from late Wednesday Afternoon into the Overnight hours. The atmosphere along and ahead of this boundary will become very unstable with CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -4 to -10C.
Very warm temperatures aloft will also cover the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with 700mb temperatures of +14 to +18C. This should keep thunderstorms from forming even with the high amounts of fuel and moisture in the air. The cap might weaken enough Wednesday Night to allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially in Northern Minnesota. If storms develop, they could become strong to severe with a high wind and hail threat, however, it seems likely that the cap will hold, keeping any convection spotty at best.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s and 90s with 70s closer to the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night will mainly be in the 60s. Wednesday Afternoon heat indices should climb into the 88-95 degree range, mainly away from the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.
-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast
-15z SREF severe weather probabilities for Wednesday Evening. Will the cap hold in Northeast Minnesota, or will it break? Stay tuned!
-Storm Prediction Center has Northern Minnesota in a 5% risk area for possible severe thunderstorms for Wednesday Night.
-Rainfall forecast for Wednesday per HPC
-Surface map for 7pm Wednesday per HPC. A few storms could fire up near the cold front in Minnesota, but once again the impressive cap will need to break in order for storms to develop.
Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (June 28th-30th)
A warm, but drier airmass will move into our area for Thursday and Friday as a cold front drops south of our area. Dewpoints later this week are expected to fall into the 50s in most of our area. There will be a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms on Saturday as a low pressure system moves in from the Northern Plains. High temperatures through this period will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast (July 1st-7th)
Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and Monday (1st-2nd) The rest of this period could feature a few showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures should continue to be near to above seasonal averages during the 1st week of July.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Turning humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Warm, but less humid. Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 74
Low: 53
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:07 PM CDT
Wednesday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High
Tim
Valley Craft Aluminum Beverage Hand Truck – 8″ x 16″ shoe – Hand
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