Issued at 3:40 PM CDT, Thursday, July 19th, 2012
Tonight: Clear-partly cloudy. T-storms possible W-NW areas.
Friday: Warm/humid. Possible showers, t-storms. A mix of sun and clouds. (Small severe chance)
Saturday: Less humid, mild temperatures.
-Average number of thunderstorm days per year. Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin typically get 30 thunderstorm days a year, Southern parts of both states normally get 40 t-storm days/year.
Weather Tidbits:
-Our last thunderstorm in Duluth (Airport location) was on July 6th, almost 2 weeks ago.
-We’ve had 29 thunderstorm days so far this year in Duluth compared to 19 through July 2011.
-Today marks the 3rd day in a row (July 17-19) with a high temperature <80F at Duluth, Minnesota. Have to go back to June 24-26 for the last time we saw 3 or more days in a row with a high temp failing to reach 80F.
-A chill in the air This Morning! 45F at Embarrass, MN; 46F at Crane Lake; 47F 3 E of Orr; and 48F at both Ely, and Orr, Minnesota.
-21 days in a row with a high temperature of at least 85F in the Twin Cities. This is the 2nd longest streak on record. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)
-106F at St. Louis, Missouri on Wednesday, this is the 8th time this year with a high temperature of at least 105 degrees. The record is 10 days set in 1934. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)
*Flood Warning*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM Thursday the stage was 12.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*The river will continue to fall to below flood stage through this Evening.
*At 12.0 feet minor flooding of farmland occurs.
-HPC’s rainfall forecast valid 7 PM Tonight through 7 PM Friday. The bulk of the rain should be west-northwest of Duluth through Friday Afternoon.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A nice summer day throughout the Northland as high pressure of 1018-1024mb was laid out from Hudson Bay to Western Lake Superior. This high brought a comfortable airmass to the area with Afternoon dew points ranging from the 40s in the Arrowhead to the 50s and lower 60s elsewhere. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy with winds from the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts in the Twin Ports.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery shows upper troughs west of the Rockies and across Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S., with a west/northwest flow covering the Upper Midwest north of an upper level ridge which was parked over the Central Plains and Rockies per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Western Minnesota to +14 to +18 in the rest of Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 19th)
High pressure will be centered to our north/east with low pressure to our west…A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move east across the Northern Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop This Evening in parts of the Dakotas. This activity and or new development is possible later in the Evening and through the Overnight hours from Westcentral into Northcentral Minnesota. Instability won’t be the greatest this far east, but there will be a modest low level jet approaching 30-40 knots and this plus some elevated CAPE could lead to a few storms, especially late Tonight in West-Northwest parts of our area, or from International Falls and Bigfork, southwest to Cass Lake and Walker, just a small chance of a stronger storm in those areas, the better chance would be in Western Minnesota. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with patchy fog possible late. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with a few 40s once again in the Arrowhead. East or southeast winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Friday and Friday Night (July 20th)
It will turn muggier this period as southerly winds lock in ahead of an approaching cold front. Dew points will climb into the 60s, possibly up to 70 degrees with PWATS of 1.25-1.75″. High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the 80s to around 90 degrees with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during this period in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota with lesser chances in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. A few of the storms could turn strong to severe with hail and gusty winds being the main hazards.
CAPE is forecast to range from 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C. The greatest instability is expected to be stretched out from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range, and points west from there. Wind shear of around 30 knots along with mid level winds <40 knots isn't very impressive, but could be enough to organize some of the storms.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in place Friday Night with lows in the 60s, maybe some 50s in Northern Minnesota. Winds during this period will be from the south-southwest, switching to the north/west Friday Night at 10 to 20 mph.
-Friday’s high temperature forecast
-15z SREF calibrated severe weather probabilities for late Friday Afternoon/Evening. Decent numbers showing up in Central-Northern Minnesota, could be a few stronger storms, stay tuned.
-SPC keeping the severe threat minimal on Friday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin (5% chance)
Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (July 21st-23rd)
High pressure with less humid air builds south into the area for Saturday. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with dry skies. This high scoots east on Sunday while another low and it’s cold front come marching through the Northland, a brief spike in humidity and instability may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially Sunday Afternoon/Night, but right now this doesn’t look like a very big deal. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 60s. Dry weather returns for Monday with comfortable humidity as high pressure noses south from Ontario Canada. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.
Long Range Forecast (July 24th-29th)
Tuesday (24th) and the period from July 27-29 is looking dry at this time. The potential trouble spot could be in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame (July 25-26) but still plenty of time for things to change. As it stands now, we could see a broad area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front affect our weather with possible showers and thunderstorms during the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average during this period.
-A rare DAY 7 severe weather threat area for all of the Northland. This would be for next Wednesday, July 25th, 2012. Plenty of things will likely change between now and then, so keep checking back for later updates.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 57 to 62. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Turning more humid. Warm. Variable cloudiness. High 83 to 88. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Mild and humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 63 to 68. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Friday: 5:35 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:54 PM CDT
Friday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High
Tim
SodaStream Cherry Cola Soda Mix Syrup – 1020192010
Leave a Reply