Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Monday, July 23rd, 2012
Tonight: A little bit of rain possible This Evening, mostly SW-S of Duluth.
Tuesday: Sun/clouds, possible showers South areas. East winds. Heavy rain threat South areas Tuesday Night?
Wednesday: Heavy rain potential during the Morning, mainly South areas. Scattered showers, isolated t-storms for the Afternoon hours.
-HPC’s rainfall forecast for 7 PM Tuesday through 7 PM Wednesday: Could see a nice soaking rain in parts of the Northland, especially south of the Twin Ports, possible 1-2″ amounts in the heaviest zone.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*6:05 PM CDT: 1.75″ HAIL. 10 N of Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Mostly nickel size hail. A few large trees down.
*6:12 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. 10 N of Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County) Pea to marble size hail.
*6:47 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. Mountain Iron, MN (St. Louis County) 4″ diameter tree branches down.
*7:30 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 2 ESE of Markham, MN (St. Louis County) A quarter mile long swath of trees up to 2.5′ in diameter down.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Togo, MN: 0.95″
Cook, MN: 0.54″
2 S of Tower, MN: 0.36″
Dixon Lake, MN: 0.12″
-Rainfall map for Sunday. Notice that NW-SE band of heavier rainfall totals in Northern Minnesota with little to no rain as you get south of the Iron Range and Two Harbors areas.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 90F
Brainerd, MN: 91F
Hibbing, MN: 90F
Ashland, WI: 93F
Hayward, WI: 90F
Orr, MN: 91F
Eveleth, MN: 91F
Bigfork, MN: 91F
Cloquet, MN: 90F
Phillips, WI: 90F
Cass Lake, MN: 95F
Northome, MN: 90F
Cook, MN: 92F
Gordon, WI: 93F
Solon Springs, WI: 94F
Upson, WI: 90F
-Today marks the 29th day in 2012 at or above 80 degrees. Last year through July we had 20 days, and for the entire year of 2011 we had 34 days at or above 80F.
-It’s been a dry July in the Twin Ports. Total rainfall through the 22nd: 0.82″ which is 2.04″ below average. We still have a rainfall surplus going since June 1st (+3.76″) and since January 1st (+8.55″) Like I said before, long term were doing fine, but not so good in the short term.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A stationary front was draped from Southern South Dakota through Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin late This Afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in the Northland Today with another warm day as high temperatures pushed into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Dew points were in the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is somewhat more tolerable compared to Sunday. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A west-northwest flow continues in the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis. A strong upper low with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was over Southwest Canada/Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery while a massive ridge continued to blanket the Central-Southern Plains, west to the Rockies, and into the Southeast U.S. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +24C in Southern Minnesota to +16 to +18C in Northern and Central Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 23rd)
Some light rain or rain showers could affect Southern parts of our area This Evening. Right now it looks like any rain would be south of Highway 2, and more likely from Walker and Brainerd, to McGregor, Hinckley and Pine City in MN, and from Siren to the Hayward Lakes in Northwest WI. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with mainly dry conditions after Midnight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s, maybe a few 40s in far Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north, west, or east around 10 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (July 24th)
High pressure should keep Northern Minnesota, Arrowhead, and North Shore areas mainly dry on Tuesday with partly cloudy skies. There could be some rain showers at times in Southern areas, or from the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City, Siren and Hayward. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. By Tuesday Night, will see low pressure move toward the Northern Plains with a warm front extending southeast of that low into the Southern half of Minnesota. Moisture running up and over that boundary will likely lead to a cluster of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday Night. The potential does exist for upwards of 1-2″ of rainfall late Tuesday Night-Wednesday Morning, but where this band sets up is handled differently with the various computer models Today. The consensus from the models would be for the heaviest rain to set-up from Central and Eastern Minnesota (south of Duluth) into Northcentral Wisconsin. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
-Severe weather outlook for Tuesday Night. Highway 2 south, a 5% chance for severe thunderstorms. 15% chance does include Fort Ripley, MN, Pine City, MN and Trade Lake, WI. (SPC)
-18z 7.23.12 Hires/NAM computer forecast for 7 AM Wednesday. A nice looking batch of rain late Tuesday Night-Wednesday Morning in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
-Wednesday’s severe weather outlook per SPC. A minimal (5%) chance for severe storms in all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Extended Forecast, Wednesday-Friday (July 25th-27th)
Low pressure will exit Minnesota to the south/east later in the day Wednesday. This system could continue to bring some showers or isolated thunderstorms to our area for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. A strong upper low/trough currently in Southwest Canada will be moving through the Upper Midwest on Thursday, this system will likely trigger some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with dry weather for Friday as this system pushes off to the east. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s, but if more sunshine develops, then some 80s will occur. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the 70s.
-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC valid through Saturday, July 28th, 2012. If this pans out, then a dent in the extreme drought will likely take place for the Southern half of Wisconsin, also looks like the Southern 1/2 of Minnesota could get in on some needed rainfall during the next few days. The Northland won’t be spared either, some needed rains coming our way!
Long Range Forecast (July 28th-August 2nd)
Saturday (28th) looks dry right now, then the period from July 29-August 2 could feature a few showers/storms at times with a west or west-northwest flow continuing over the Upper Midwest with hot temperatures continuing to our SW while possible disturbances ride up and over an upper ridge. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind north to northeast around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Occasional showers possible Overnight. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Wednesday… Considerable cloudiness. Occasional showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 40%.
.Wednesday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 58 to 63.
.Thursday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 72 to 77. Chance of rain 60%.
.Thursday Night… Showers possible early, partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:50 PM CDT
Tuesday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High
Tuesday’s Allergy Forecast: 5.4/Medium
Tim
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