Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 25th, 2012
Tonight: A few showers/t-storms west-northwest and southeast areas.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: Small shower chance, a mix of sun/clouds
-Here’s a doppler plot of the rainfall that occurred earlier Today. The legend is on the left.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 1.56″
International Falls, MN: 0.63″
Brainerd, MN: 1.60″
Grand Marais, MN: 1.18″
Hibbing, MN: 0.98″
Ashland, WI: 0.68″
Hayward, WI: 0.76″
4 S of Bruno, MN: 1.40″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 1.85″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 2.02″
Cass Lake, MN: 1.02″
Togo, MN: 0.80″
Cook, MN: 1.01″
Embarrass, MN: 0.85″
Floodwood, MN: 0.99″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.88″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 1.27″
Kabetogama, MN: 1.46″
Finland, MN: 0.67″
Butternut, WI: 0.95″
Gurney, WI: 1.34″
Madeline Island, WI: 1.57″
Upson, WI: 0.85″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 2.62″
Solon Springs, WI: 1.75″
2 S of Cohasset, MN: 2.16″
-Here’s another map showing the rainfall totals from last night
*Record 24 hour rainfall total in the Twin Cities*
1.74″ of rain fell on July 24th, 2012 at the Twin Cities. This is a new 24 hour rainfall record. The previous record was 1.44″ set in 1985. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)
*Today’s rainfall total of 1.56″ is the heaviest daily total so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota. The previous highest rainfall total was 0.55″ on July 6th.
*Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature sits at a balmy 73.3 degrees Today. The all-time daily average high temperature record for Lake Superior is 71F which occurred in mid-August 2010. The average surface water temps at this time of year are in the mid 50s, so these temperatures are running about 20 degrees warmer than average. Peak water temperatures in Lake Superior usually occur during the next 3 weeks, and forecasters indicate that an 80 degree water temp in Lake Superior is possible by mid-August. (Updraft. Minnesota Public Radio)
*Today is the 30th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F in the Twin Cities and is the 24th day at or above 90F this summer. (Twitter; @KSTP; @KenBarlowWx)
*Today is the 11th day this year with a high temperature >105 degrees at St. Louis, Missouri. This is a new record for a calendar year. The previous record was 10 days in 1934. (Twitter; @TriStatesWx; NWSStLouis)
*Only 12 tornadoes so far this month in the U.S., that’s a record low pace with 23 being the monthly low records set in 1950 and 1951. (Twitter; @JimCantore; DrGregForbes)
*5 tornadoes confirmed in Saskatchewan on Tuesday per Environment Canada.
*NWS Duluth Storm Damage Survey Team states that Downburst type wind damage occurred on July 23rd, 2012 6 S of Indington, MN (St. Louis County) Trees were down around Sand Lake, and along County Roads 106, 65, 461, and 668.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Southeast Minnesota as of 3 PM with a warm front extending northeast into Central Wisconsin. Low pressure of 1002mb was over far Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front heading east from the Northern Plains. A tropical like day throughout the Northland with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Skies were fairly cloudy though so high temperatures topped out in the mid 70s to low 80s. There’s been a few showers at times This Afternoon in Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise it’s been dry for the remainder of our area.
-Enhanced satellite image from early This Morning showing the large thunderstorm complex (MCS) as it rolls across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A westerly flow covered the Upper Midwest while a strong upper low with 30-60 meter 12 hour height falls drops SE out of Eastern Saskatchewan per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +24C across Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in Northern, Central, and Western Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 25th)
The atmosphere was slowly destabilizing This Afternoon especially in Western-Southwest parts of our area, this is where a few showers and thunderstorms may occur Tonight as a cold front works slowly SE out of Western Minnesota. CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg will be in place prior to Midnight with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C, mainly from International Falls to Grand Rapids and McGregor, points west to the Brainerd Lakes, Walker, and Cass Lake areas. If storms develop and or move into these areas during the Evening, they could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds.
The amount of instability will decrease late Tonight, so anything that comes out of Northcentral Minnesota should diminish to a few showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight. Note: A few other storms could organize This Evening in Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin near the warm front and a surface low coming out of Southeast Minnesota, however, the greater chance for severe weather should be south/east of that area.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Thursday and Thursday Night (July 26th)
A fairly vigorous upper level low/trough will dig into the Upper Midwest on Thursday before it exits to our south/east Thursday Night. With some cold air aloft it won’t take much heating to get scattered showers and thunderstorms going across the Northland. The more robust storms during the Afternoon-early Evening hours could contain small hail and gusty winds, but a major severe weather outbreak is not expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s in the Arrowhead and Borderland regions. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 10 to 20 mph.
-Thursday’s severe weather forecast per Storm Prediction Center. 5% chance across Northern Minnesota and Northeast Minnesota. 15% chance in Eastern Minnesota, Duluth/Superior, and Northwest Wisconsin.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast
-Rainfall forecast for Tonight and Thursday, ending at 7 PM Tomorrow. (HPC)
Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (July 27th-29th)
An upper level low/trough will be located east of our area on Friday, lingering instability behind that system may be enough to trigger spotty Afternoon showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but coverage should be less compared to Thursday. Dry weather is then expected for Saturday with a few showers or thunderstorms possibly returning to the area for Sunday.
Daytime highs in the 70s can be expected for Friday with 70s and 80s ahead for Saturday-Sunday. Lows in the 40s and 50s are forecast Friday Night with 50s and lower 60s for Saturday Night.
Long Range Forecast (July 30th-August 4th)
Looks like we may see a few showers or thunderstorms at times during this period with a stalled front to our west-south and another boundary up to our north with a west or west-northwest flow persisting in the Upper Midwest while a heat waves continues for the Rockies, Plains, and perhaps as far north as the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to be at or above average through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Muggy This Evening. Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. Low 58 to 63. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east.
.Thursday… Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 72 to 77. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Thursday Night… Scattered showers or thunderstorms during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.
.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Thursday: 5:42 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:48 PM CDT
Thursday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim
Leave a Reply