Issued at 3:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 1st, 2012
*July 2012 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota*
Source: National Weather Service
International Falls:
Average monthly temperature: 69.0 degrees/3.8 degrees above normal.
Total precipitation: 5.50″/1.80″ above normal.
Twin Cities:
Average monthly temperature: 80.2 degrees/6.4 degrees above normal. 2nd warmest July on record.
Total precipitation: 4.90″/0.86″ above normal.
St. Cloud:
Average monthly temperature: 76.5 degrees/6.2 degrees above normal.
Total precipitation: 3.59″/0.28″ above normal.
Duluth:
Average monthly temperature: 71.9 degrees/6.1 degrees above normal. Tied for warmest July on record.
Total precipitation: 3.09″/0.76″ below normal.
*USDA declares 218 additional Counties, now 50.3% of all Counties in the U.S. a natural disaster area due to drought. Twitter; @TriStatesWx @SeverePlains
*Hottest July on record at Indianapolis, Indiana; Louisville, Kentucky; and St. Louis, Missouri. Hottest month on record at Denver, Colorado. Twitter; @TriStatesWx @mikeseidel
*Every day in July had a high temperature of at least 80F in the Twin Cities, this is more than 1916 and 1936. Twitter; @pdouglasweather
August climate and astronomical data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Average monthly temperature: 64.3 degrees
Normal precipitation: 3.70″
Sunrise on the 1st: 5:49 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 6:27 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 8:40 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 7:49 PM CDT
*Local Storm Report for August 1st, 2012*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-11:30 AM CDT: 0.88″ HAIL. Ashland, WI (Ashland County)
-11:45 AM CDT: 1.75″ HAIL. Odanha, WI (Ashland County) Golf ball sized hail.
-11:49 AM CDT: 1.00″ HAIL. Odanha, WI (Ashland County) Quarter sized hail.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1004mb was near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada as of 3 PM with a cold front trailing the low to the southwest, through Northeast, Eastcentral and Southcentral Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms rumbled through portions of the Northland This Morning with dangerous lightning and heavy downpours, the bulk of this activity was along and south of a Cass Lake-Grand Rapids-Two Harbors, Minnesota line. Other storms, some severe developed in Ashland, Iron, and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with large hail reported in a few spots. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s in Southern locales. A tropical like airmass moved into parts of the area Today with dew points in the middle 60s to lower 70s, but a push of drier air was already evident in parts of Northwest Minnesota where late Afternoon dew points were in the 50s and lower 60s. Winds Today were out of the south, west, or northwest at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Seeing more of a westerly flow vs. a northwest flow Today as a disturbance tracks east across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper trough was over Eastern Canada, Eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast U.S. while an upper level ridge covered the Central/Southern Plains per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 1 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Central and Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C across the Northern half of the state.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (August 1st)
Low pressure will be centered to our NE while a cold front pushes southeast and through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. The atmosphere has become very unstable This Afternoon along and ahead of this front with CAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -8C. Lapse Rates were steep, and there was some wind shear along with rather strong winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. The limiting factor to get storms going is the presence of the cap (warm temps aloft)
It does appear that a few thunderstorms will try to develop ahead of the cold front in Northwest Wisconsin before 7 PM. If storms can sustain themselves, they may become severe with a hail and high wind threat. A few showers or thunderstorms are also possible in Northeast, Northern, and Eastcentral Minnesota…But the severe threat in these areas is lower.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the west or north at 10 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Thursday and Thursday Night (August 2nd)
High pressure will be centered to our north while a cold front becomes stationary well to our west/south. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period. Can’t rule out a few showers, mainly in Northern Minnesota, but overall it looks dry for most of us. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lower dew points compared to Today. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (August 3rd-5th)
Friday: A strengthening area of low pressure will move NE out of the Northern Plains with it’s warm front and cold front marching east. At this time it looks like the cold front will move through the Northland late Friday Night into Saturday Morning. The computer models are differing with how much moisture and instability there is ahead of this storm system late this week, still can’t rule out the possibility for some severe weather in parts of our area, especially Friday Evening/Overnight, but right now it looks to be more of a general thunderstorm setup embedded within an area of rain. Again though, if instability becomes greater then the potential for severe weather would increase with already favorable wind shear in place along with potent jet stream energy consisting of a 60-80 knot mid level jet streak and an upper level jet approaching 100 knots. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.
-SPC’s severe weather outlook for Friday. 15% chance for all of Northern Minnesota. 5% chance in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Saturday: Low pressure will pass by to our N/NE with a cold front exiting Northwest Wisconsin before Noon Saturday. Scattered showers might continue in our area on Saturday as a vigorous upper trough digs south/east into the Upper Midwest, behind the low and cold front. Highs will range from the 60s in far Northern Minnesota to the 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s with 40s in Northern areas.
Sunday: High pressure will bring pleasant summer weather conditions to the Northland. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.
Long Range Forecast (August 6th-11th)
Warm temperatures are possible next Monday, but a cold front heading southeast across our area should bring cooler air into the region from the 7th-9th with another warmup possible for the 10th-11th. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms at times during this period and temperatures should remain at or above average.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Scattered showers possible before Midnight. Muggy This Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61 to 66. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 56
Sunrise Thursday: 5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:39 PM CDT
Thursday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High
Thursday’s Allergy Forecast: 5.5/Medium
Tim
HP Touchsmart All-in-One 320-1030
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