Issued at 8:10 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012
-15z 8.22.12 SREF model: A widespread area in Minnesota with fairly low severe weather probabilities for Thursday Afternoon/Evening.
Weather Tidbits:
-Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature sits at 68.9F Today.
-High temperature of 84F at the Duluth Airport Today is the warmest maximum temperature since an 85 degree high temperature back on August 6th.
-Today is the 4th day this month with a high temperature at or above 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm late August day in the Northland with partly cloudy to sunny skies. Highs were mainly in the 80s which is around 10 degrees above average for the 22nd of August. Dewpoints weren’t too high as they stayed mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Spotty showers did occur for a time late This Afternoon in Pine County Minnesota, otherwise it was a dry day.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A west-northwest flow is in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper low to our NE in Hudson Bay while an upper level trough covered much of the Southern U.S., Ohio Valley, Eastern Great Lakes, and Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from around +18C in Northern Minnesota to +20 to +22C in Southern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (August 22nd)
Two boundaries near our area Tonight, one will be centered along the Minnesota-Ontario border and the other down in Western/Southern areas of Minnesota. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop at times across the Northland Tonight with weak instability in place along with a low level jet
Thursday and Thursday Night (August 23rd)
Pretty much a similar setup as Tonight with a stationary front to our north while a warm front and upper level disturbance lifts E/NE out of the Northern Plains, and Western/Southern parts of Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. It does look like will have somewhat higher values of instability and moisture developing in the Northland on Thursday with dew points ranging from 57-64 degrees with PWATS of 1.00-1.30″. CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg is forecast to develop with Lifted Indices from -2 to -5C. Wind shear will be pretty weak, and the winds aloft also look meager, but there will be a low level jet blowing at 25-35 knots and that could aid in the formation of some scattered storms on Thursday. Not a real big severe risk, but an isolated stronger thunderstorm is certainly possible, especially Thursday Afternoon-Evening.
Lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm and brief downpours can’t be ruled out either. REMEMBER, when thunder roars get indoors!!!
Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s, although an isolated 90 degree temperature is possible depending on sky conditions. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
-5% chance for severe thunderstorms in all but Northeast and Southeast Minnesota for Thursday per Storm Prediction Center.
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (August 24th-26th)
Looks pretty warm Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s, perhaps even a few 90s, especially on Friday. A strong area of low pressure will pass well NW of Minnesota this weekend while a cold front heads east out of the Northern Plains, passing through the Northland between late Saturday Afternoon and Sunday Morning. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop on Friday with a better chance for showers or thunderstorms occurring for Saturday into Saturday Night. Sunday looks dry at this time. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures for Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast (August 27th-September 1st)
Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period. A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected for early next week (27th-28th) Low pressure and it’s warm front and cold front looks to affect the Upper Midwest between the 29th-31st, this system could bring unsettled weather conditions to the region.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible after Midnight. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Thursday… Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Partly sunny. High 78 to 83, cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Thursday Night… Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly late. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Chance of rain 30%.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 73
Low: 54
Sunrise Thursday: 6:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:04 PM CDT
Today’s predominant pollens: Ragweed. Sagebrush. Nettle.
Thursday’s UV Index: 7.0/Medium
Thursday’s Allergy Forecast: 6.9/Medium
Tim
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