Issued at 3:01 PM CDT, Monday, October 1st, 2012
*A low to moderate risk for at least 4″ of snow for Thursday in parts of Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota per HPC. More details below.
September 2012 climate summaries for select Cities in Minnesota:
International Falls:
Average monthly temperature: 51.5F/2.1 degrees below average
Total precipitation: 0.85″
Total snowfall: Trace
Twin Cities:
Average monthly temperature: 63.9F/1.9 degrees above average
Total precipitation: 0.30″
St. Cloud:
Average monthly temperature: 59.6F/1.0 degree above average
Total precipitation: 0.24″
Duluth, Minnesota:
Average monthly temperature: 56.2F/0.6 degrees above average
Total precipitation: 0.84″
Total snowfall: 0.1″
Weather Tidbits:
*Duluth has a 6.31″ precipitation deficit since July.
*On Sunday there were 13 wild fires reported in Minnesota that burned 766 acres per MNDNR.
*September was the 3rd consecutive month that featured below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota (July-September)
*September was the 15th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. June 2011 was the last time that the monthly temperature was below average.
*Wild fire location map for Sunday, September 30th, 2012. Larger circles represent more acres that were burned. (MNDNR)
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
September 23-29, 2012:
9/23: 55F/7 degrees below normal
9/24: 75F/14 degrees above normal
9/25: 60F/1 degree below normal
9/26: 59F/2 degrees below normal
9/27: 65F/5 degrees above normal
9/28: 71F/11 degrees above normal
9/29: 65F/6 degrees above normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
September 23-29, 2012:
9/23: 33F/10 degrees below normal
9/24: 39F/4 degrees below normal
9/25: 33F/9 degrees below normal
9/26: 34F/8 degrees below normal
9/27: 33F/9 degrees below normal
9/28: 38F/3 degrees below normal
9/29: 41F/Normal
*Temperature departure map for last week.
Total precipitation for September 23-29, 2012: 0.00″
Normal: 0.91″.
Departure from normal: -0.91″
*Precipitation departure map for last week. Bone dry in Minnesota and Wisconsin, all areas saw less than 15% of it’s normal precipitation for September 23-29, 2012.
October climate data for Duluth, Minnesota
Average temperature: 43.2 degrees
Average precipitation: 2.85″
Average snowfall: 2.3″
Astronomical data for October:
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:50 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 6:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 5:53 PM CDT
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A dry cold front has been moving through the Northland Today. Skies were partly to mostly sunny with above average temperatures as we kick off the month of October. Highs were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with north or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.
*A large chunk of Minnesota is in Very High to Extreme fire danger Today per Minnesota DNR. Expect similar conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
RAP model analysis shows two upper level troughs. One over the Upper Midwest, the other is lifting NE out of the Southeast U.S. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6C in far Northern Minnesota to +8 to +10C in Southern-Eastern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (October 1st)
Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 30s and 40s, might even see a spotty 27-29 degree temperature in the protected/low lying areas/favored cool spots. Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 2nd)
More dry weather this period with clear to partly cloudy skies. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 40s. South or east winds at 10 to 20 mph are forecast this period as deep low pressure to our NW helps to tighten the pressure gradient just a bit.
Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (October 3rd-5th)
Wednesday has the potential to be quite warm in the Northland as low pressure develops in the Western High Plains while a cold front remains over the Northern Plains which will result in a southerly flow in the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will reach the 60s and 70s, but a few 80s can’t be ruled out, especially in Southern portions of the Northland, it’ll likely be somewhat cooler though along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
The aforementioned cold front and low pressure will move across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on Thursday, the surface low will then deepen a bit as it heads out into Lake Superior and Central Ontario on Friday. A much colder airmass will follow the passage of the low and cold front later this week.
Hopefully this system will bring at least some rain to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday Night-Thursday, then as colder air moves in…The rain should mix with and turn to some snow Thursday Afternoon into Friday.
At the moment, it looks like the Northwest half of Minnesota has the greatest potential to receive a couple inches of snow for Thursday and Friday. This area could extend east to include International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, and Cass Lake since the exact storm track/timing is still a little uncertain.
The Arrowhead, North Shore, Brainerd Lakes, I35 corridor and all of Northwest Wisconsin should escape without getting accumulating snowfall later this week based on current model data, although don’t be surprised if there are some snow showers and flurries falling from the sky in these areas late Thursday Night and Friday.
High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 50s and 60s elsewhere. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Friday only reaching the 30s and 40s.
*Storm track for the late week system per HPC. At the moment, it looks like the surface low will come right over Duluth, or perhaps move west of Duluth. If that verifies, then the greatest chance for accumulating snow would be in Northwest Minnesota, and possibly around the International Falls, Bigfork areas in Northern Minnesota for Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned!
Long Range Forecast (October 6th-11th)
Little to no signs of a major storm with significant precipitation for Minnesota through this period. Looks like will be in a north-northwest flow resulting in below average temperatures from the 6th-11th. Could see a few showers of rain or snow at times as systems drop down from Central Canada, but again nothing significant is expected at this time.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 36 to 41. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming east toward dawn.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 62 to 67. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Low 45 to 50.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible at times. High 55 to 60 with falling Afternoon temperatures.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 58
Low: 40
Sunrise on Tuesday: 7:09 AM CDT
Sunset on Tuesday: 6:45 PM CDT
Tim
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