Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Thursday, October 4th, 2012
*Still a sight risk for snowfall amounts of at least 4″ Tonight and Friday in extreme Northern Minnesota per HPC.
Note: Big news Today from forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center. The chances for an El Nino are decreasing for the upcoming winter. Currently the CPC is expecting a weak El Nino or Enso Neutral conditions for the next few months. El Nino winters usually lead to warmer than average temperatures in Minnesota, so the fact that this El Nino is expected to be weak or perhaps non-existent makes me wonder if were in for a colder than normal winter in the land of 10,000 lakes. But, last winter was a La Nina which typically leads to colder than normal temperatures in Minnesota, and we all know what ended up happening, so who knows for sure. Stay tuned! (Source: The Weather Channel)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Strong low pressure of 1002mb has moved into Southern Ontario, or just north of International Falls, Minnesota as of 3 PM. The entire Northland is now on the west-south flank of this storm and colder air has been moving in from the west-southwest This Afternoon. Highs reached the 40s and 50s in most areas, but temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s during the Afternoon. Winds which started out of the south, east, or north have now shifted to the west or southwest. Wind speeds have ranged from 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30-40 mph.
Note: 5.0″ of snow has fallen so far Today at Karlstad, MN (Kittson County) with 4.0″ of snow reported at Greenbush, MN (Roseau County) per NWS.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A strong H5 low covered Northern Minnesota, Western Lake Superior, and Southern Ontario per water vapor satellite imagery with impressive 90-180 meter 12 hour height falls in Minnesota and Western Wisconsin per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2C in far Northeast and far Southeast Minnesota to 0 to -4C elsewhere.
*A nice looking storm wrapping up Today in the Upper Midwest and Ontario Canada. 12 hour water vapor satellite loop from Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (October 4th)
Deep low pressure will be nearly stationary just north of Minnesota with strong west-southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph continuing on the west/south side of the low. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with areas of drizzle, rain, and snow. Precipitation will transition to all snow during the night in Northern Minnesota with a few inches of accumulation possible by dawn. Lows will mainly be in the 30s.
Friday and Friday Night (October 5th)
Low pressure will track north of Lake Superior during this period with mostly cloudy skies and cold temperatures found in our area along with some snow and flurries which could mix with drizzle in spots during the daytime hours. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees. West or northwest winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.
Latest information on the weather headlines that are in effect in the Northland:
*Wind Advisory* now in effect until 4 AM Friday for Southern St. Louis and Carlton County in Minnesota and for Douglas County Wisconsin. Cities included in the advisory: Floodwood MN…Duluth MN…Cloquet MN…Moose Lake MN…Superior WI…and Solon Springs WI.
*Wind Advisory* continues until 7 PM CDT This Evening for Southern Cass…Crow Wing…and Southern Aitkin County. Cities included in the advisory are: Pine River MN…Brainerd MN…Aitkin MN…and McGregor MN.
*Winter Weather Advisory* continues until 7 PM CDT Friday for Koochiching and Northern Itasca County. Cities included in the advisory are: International Falls MN…Northome MN…Bigfork MN…and Togo MN.
*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect from 7 PM CDT This Evening until 7 PM CDT Friday for Northern St. Louis County. Cities included in the advisory are: Orr MN…Crane Lake MN…and Ely MN.
***Snowfall totals by Friday Evening***
2-5″ in Northern Itasca, Koochiching, and Northern St. Louis County…Including the cities of International Falls, Loman, Indus, Birchdale, Bigfork, Togo, Orr, Crane Lake, and Ely in far Northern Minnesota. The greatest snowfall accumulations are expected to be closer to the Canadian border, and also in far Northwest Koochiching County.
Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (October 6th-8th)
Lingering flurries or snow showers in our area for Saturday Morning with mainly dry conditions from Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Afternoon before low pressure approaches from the NW for Sunday Night/Monday…This system could bring a few rain showers to the Northland on Monday. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on Saturday with 40s and 50s for Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Saturday Night with mainly 30s expected for Sunday Night.
Long Range Forecast (October 9th-14th)
Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period. Could see a few showers at times on the 9th-10th, and possibly again for next weekend 13th-14th, but it still doesn’t look like any widespread/significant precipitation events for the Northland through next week.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT Friday*
.Tonight… Windy. Considerable cloudiness. Patchy drizzle or flurries possible. Low 32 to 37. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
.Friday… Windy. Cold for the time of year. Considerable cloudiness. Snow showers or flurries possible which could mix with drizzle. High 38 to 43. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Friday Night… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. High 47 to 52.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 57
Low: 39
Sunrise Friday: 7:13 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:40 PM CDT
Tim
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