Issued at 3:11 PM CDT, Friday, October 19th, 2012
*6-10 day analog temperature probabilities. Issued on October 19th, centered on October 27th, 2012. Source: Climate Prediction Center
*8-14 day analog temperature outlook. Issued October 19th, 2012, centered on October 30th, 2012. Lots of us could have a cold end to October with the type of pattern that is forecast to develop late next week and beyond. Perhaps a cold Halloween this year?
Taking a look back at the Winter of 2011-12.
Snowfall data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Note: I only included snow totals of 0.1″ or greater.
Average snowfall for an entire winter is 86.1″ based on 1981-2010 data.
November 2011. Snowfall total: 3.7″. Below average.
15th: 0.8″
16th: 0.2″
18th: 1.0″
19th: 0.1″
26th: 0.3″
30th: 1.3″
December 2011. Snowfall total: 8.1″. Below average.
3rd: 0.2″
4th: 0.3″
7th: 0.1″
14th: 2.5″
15th: 0.2″
17th: 0.1″
23rd: 2.3″
28th: 0.2″
29th: 1.2″
31st: 1.0″
January 2012. Snowfall total: 5.1″. Below average.
1st: 0.1″
6th: 0.1″
11th: 0.8″
18th: 0.7″
19th: 0.1″
23rd: 0.9″
27th: 1.8″
30th: 0.6″
February 2012. Snowfall total: 19.7″. Above average.
9th: 0.5″
15th: 0.5″
17th: 1.2″
20th: 1.0″
21st: 2.8″
24th: 0.4″
25th: 0.1″
26th: 3.2″
27th: 0.1″
28th: 0.2″
29th: 9.7″
March 2012. Snowfall total: 11.9″. Below average.
2nd: 1.3″
3rd: 8.5″
4th: 1.6″
5th: 0.4″
8th: 0.1″
April 2012. Snowfall total: 0.6″. Below average.
16th: 0.6″
I’ve tweeted my official winter forecast, and also put it up on facebook, but figured I would also include it in my blog, so here it is…Drum roll please…
For Duluth, Minnesota: 2012-13 snow total: 75-85″ which is near to as much as 10″ below average. I tend not to predict temperatures for a whole season, but I do think will have several outbreaks of arctic air hitting the Twin Ports this winter.
Bottom line: The winter of 2012-13 should be more harsh than last winter (I know that’s really going out on a limb) but it won’t take much to make it worse when you compare it to the winter of 2011-12. I’m thinking Duluth will pick up around 25-35″ more of snow this winter vs. last winter.
Rainfall report for October 18th-19th, 2012 (ending between 6-7 AM This Morning)
Source: National Weather Service
Duluth, MN: 0.18″
International Falls, MN: 0.70″
Brainerd, MN: 0.23″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.50″
Hibbing, MN: 0.30″
Hayward, WI: 0.10″
Bruno, MN: 0.20″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 0.20″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.22″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.30″
Embarrass, MN: 0.74″
Kabetogama, MN: 0.90″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.69″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.81″
Finland, MN: 0.38″
Gurney, WI: 0.41
Upson, WI: 0.15″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 0.30″
Gordon, WI: 0.18″
*Rainfall map for October 18-19, ending the Morning of the 19th. Heaviest rains were in Southwest, Northwest, and scattered about across Northern areas of Minnesota. The legend is on the right.
*Here’s the rainfall map for October 17-18, ending the Morning of the 18th. The legend is on the right.
Weather Tidbits:
*Today is the 6th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 50F at Duluth, Minnesota (14th-19th) This is also the longest stretch for the entire month.
*Thru October 18th, the average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 44.0F which is 1.8 degrees below average. 0.69″ of precipitation thru the 18th, 1.13″ below average. Since September 1st, 1.53″ of precipitation, 4.40″ below average.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into the Southern half of Lake Michigan as of 3 PM with a ridge of high pressure in place over the Northern Plains. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with areas of showers and some drizzle. Highs were in the upper 40s to middle 50s with north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis shows a large upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Central Canada. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0C in far Southeast Minnesota to around +2C elsewhere.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (October 19th)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail Tonight with isolated showers possible during the Evening. Patchy fog could develop later in the night. Lows will generally be in the 30s to lower 40s, but a few spots might dip into the 20s. Winds will be out of the north, east, or south at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (October 20th)
A ridge of high pressure will move east through the Upper Midwest this period. Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, but cooler temperatures are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds are forecast to be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (October 21st-23rd)
Should stay dry on Sunday, but a few showers can’t be ruled out as we move from Sunday Night into Monday, although right now it looks like the better rain chances would be farther south. Another chance for showers may enter the picture on Tuesday. This period will be dominated by a southwest flow aloft with a couple of disturbances ejecting northeast out of a Western U.S. trough.
High temperatures:
Sunday: 50s and 60s, but cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Monday: 40s and 50s.
Tuesday: 40s and 50s.
Low temperatures:
Sunday Night: 30s and 40s.
Monday Night: 30s and 40s.
Long Range Forecast (October 24th-29th)
Model agreement is rather poor during the middle/end of next week. GFS model seems to be the only model that really cranks up a storm, the other models (CANADIAN and ECMWF) show lesser storm development. The models do agree on a southwesterly flow aloft with a trough to our west. With that type of pattern in place, next week needs to be watched for a potential larger storm, but timing of when it may hit is very uncertain. For now I’ll keep things simple with a chance for some rain, especially from the 24th-26th. Thunderstorms and even some snow can’t be ruled out either, especially if a stronger low pressure system takes shape over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Next weekend could feature some flurries or sprinkles but no major precipitation events are expected at this time
24th-25th: Near to above normal temperatures.
26th-29th: Near to below normal temperatures.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 57 to 62.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45.
.Monday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 50 to 55.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 45 to 50.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 50
Low: 34
Sunrise Saturday: 7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:12 PM CDT
Tim
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