/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Tuesday, November 20th, 2012/
-Snow? Yes, snow is in the forecast later this week. Several inches of it could accumulate Thursday Night, especially in Northern Minnesota and possibly in far Northern Wisconsin. The HPC has outlined those areas in a Slight Risk for at least 4″ of snow Thursday Night. More details below…
Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). Ever hear of it? If not, I’ll give you a brief description of what it is. Every fall a unique weather pattern develops that repeats itself throughout the year. The cycle length varies each year, sometimes it can be as short as 40 days, other times it can be over 50 days.
This winter for the 1st time ever I will be posting what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, I’m actually going to start doing this Today.
Big thanks goes out to Josh Herman, he’s the one that got me into the LRC 2 years ago. Josh is an LRC guru and a great guy! If you’re on Twitter, give Josh a follow @OSNW3.
*Looking ahead to the start of winter 2012-13 using the LRC*
December 2012 for Duluth, Minnesota:
-Number of 0 or below 0 low temperatures: 7
-Number of days with snow: 13
-The coldest temperatures are forecast to occur during the 1st week of December with moderating temperatures thereafter, before another blast of cold air comes in around December 20th, which will then persist through the rest of the month.
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
November 18th, 2012: Record high temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota. High temperature was 54 degrees which tied the previous record of 54 set in 2001.
November 19th, 2012: Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota. High temperature was 54 degrees which broke the previous record of 50 degrees set in 1925.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A ridge of high pressure averaging 1020-1022mb stretched from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest Today. Areas of fog and low clouds formed over portions of the Northland early This Morning, locations that saw the development of low clouds/fog had a difficult time clearing out Today due to rather light winds and the low November sun angle. Consider yourself lucky if your city didn’t have any fog/low clouds Today, if that was the case then skies were mostly sunny. High temperatures Today were in the 30s and 40s with a few 50s down in Price County Wisconsin. So temperatures for most areas were cooler Today than the past 2 days, but were still above average for the time of year. Winds were out of the south or east around 10 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A westerly flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. An upper trough was over the Pacific Northwest, and a pretty strong disturbance was diving south/east through Illinois and Indiana. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +10C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
*Short Term* (Forecaster confidence: Above Average)
Tonight (November 20th)
Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight, but expect some low clouds and fog to redevelop during the night. Some of the fog could deposit a thin layer of moisture and may lead to some slick spots Tonight so beware of that possibility. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with south or east winds around 10 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 21st)
Areas of low clouds and fog should burn off during the day with partly-mostly sunny skies expected in the Northland, highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with south winds at 10 to 15 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows in the 30s to lower 40s, winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
*Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (November 22nd-24th)
(Forecaster confidence: Below Average on Thursday. Above Average Fri/Sat)
Thursday November 22nd:
Low pressure is forecast to move E/NE out of the Northern Plains, passing through Northern Minnesota, and out into Lake Superior. As this low moves east it will deepen and be accompanied by a very strong upper level low which will move through the Upper Midwest on Thursday.
The potential for an accumulating snowfall is increasing a bit for portions of the Northland later this week. At this time it appears that Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, or areas north of Highway 2 have the greatest chance at picking up a couple inches of snow from Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning, but this could shift a bit more to the south, or end up farther north in future model runs, so stay tuned!
High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Colder air overspreads the entire Northland Thanksgiving Night with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will also become rather gusty, especially Thursday Afternoon/Night with NW winds increasing to 10-25 mph.
The combination of falling temperatures, gusty winds, and some snow may lead to some travel issues Thursday Night/Friday Morning in parts of our area. Some roads could become snow covered and slippery at that time.
Friday and Saturday (23rd-24th)
Deep low pressure exits to our east on Friday with some flurries or snow showers possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures will only be in the 20s with gusty NW winds continuing which will drop wind chills into the single digits and teens. Low temperatures Friday Night will settle into the single digits and teens. Saturday looks mainly dry, but there could be some flurries in Northern Minnesota come Saturday Night as a clipper like system approaches from the northwest. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.
-Here’s the 1″ or greater snowfall potential probability map for Thursday Evening-Overnight. 40-70% chance for at least an inch of snow across Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin per HPC.
-Should this map verify, then even Duluth-Superior would pick up a couple inches of snow Thursday Night. This is the liquid precipitation forecast for Thursday Night. Anywhere from 0.10-0.25″ of precipitation is forecast to fall across the Northland. Fluff this up to snow, and I come up with totals of 1-5″, depending on the actual snow ratios. A quarter inch of liquid precip in Duluth could mean a 1-3″ snowfall. Stay tuned! (Map from the HPC)
Long Range Forecast (November 25th-30th)
(Forecaster confidence: Average)
Some snow showers and flurries may affect Northern Minnesota on Sunday (25th) as low pressure passes by to our north. Whether or not we see a larger winter storm develop sometime from the 27th-30th remains to be seen as computer models are doing the usual flip flopping from day to day. Temperatures through this period are forecast to be near to below average.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible, mainly early. High 46 to 51. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph, becoming west late.
.Thanksgiving Day… Increasing cloudiness. Some rain possible during the Afternoon. High 45 to 50.
.Thursday Night… Breezy and colder. Some snow possible with accumulations of up to 1″ possible. Low 20 to 25. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.
.Friday… Breezy and colder. Flurries possible at times. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 33
Low: 20
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:21 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:28 PM CST
Tim
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