/Issued at 4:51 PM CST, Wednesday, November 21st, 2012/
-NWS hazards map. Winter Weather Advisory north of Duluth for late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning. Gale Warning covers parts of Lake Superior for Thursday Night. This will be a NW gale, so the biggest waves will occur east of the Twin Ports.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A winter weather advisory has been issued for Northern Minnesota.
Start time: 3 PM CST Thursday.
Expiration time: 6 AM CST Friday.
Counties included in the advisory are:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls…Bigfork…Grand Rapids…Cass Lake…Walker…Hibbing…Ely…Orr…Crane Lake…Two Harbors…Silver Bay…Finland…Isabella…Lutsen…and Grand Marais.
Discussion:
A mixture of rain and snow is forecast to develop Thursday Afternoon or early Thursday Evening. This mixture of precipitation will change over to snow from west to east Thursday Evening with snow continuing Thursday Night before ending Friday Morning.
Impacts:
Falling temperatures and a possible mix of precipitation along with a period of snow will result in hazardous driving conditions with roads becoming snow covered and icy by Thursday Night into Friday Morning. Visibilities could be reduced to less than a mile at times due to falling and blowing snow.
Total snowfall accumulations:
2-5″ with the greatest amounts expected to be north and northwest of the Iron Range, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind. Roads may be slick and hazardous, so allow extra time to reach your destination.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1002mb was over Western North Dakota early This Evening with a warm front in Southern Minnesota. Low clouds and fog which developed late last night burned off This Morning which gave way to sunny to partly cloudy skies. Well above average temperatures continued once again Today with highs in the 40s and 50s…Southern Minnesota saw highs in the 60s and even a few lower 70s Today! Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A southwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper trough along with it’s 60-90 meter height falls moving through the Northwest U.S. and into the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +10 to +16C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short term
Tonight (November 21st)
Forecaster confidence: Above Average.
Low pressure will move toward Western Minnesota during the night with a warm front lifting NE out of Southern Minnesota. Dry weather for Tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some fog and low clouds could develop so beware of that possibility if you will be doing some traveling Tonight. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Thanksgiving Day and Night (November 22nd)
Forecaster confidence: Average.
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves east-northeast along the Minnesota-Ontario border before moving out over Lake Superior by Thursday Night. Two cold fronts will pass through the Northland during this period. The first front is forecast to move through the area Tomorrow Morning-early Afternoon with the arctic front moving through our area Thursday Afternoon/Evening.
Starts out dry Thursday Morning with patchy fog possible along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Light rain or a wintry mix of precipitation should develop Thursday Afternoon while overspreading the Northland from west to east. Precipitation will change over to snow in all areas by Thursday Evening as much colder air blows into the Upper Midwest behind the surface low and cold front.
At the moment it looks like all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will receive at least a dusting to 1″ of snow come Thursday Night, but there will likely be an area that receives heavier amounts and that area looks to be Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, or along and north of Highway 2…Snowfall totals in these areas could reach 2-5″ by Friday Morning.
Hazardous travel conditions will likely develop in the Northland Thursday Night into Friday Morning. Falling temperatures, gusty winds, and some snow will result in not so pleasant elements for those shoppers that plan to be out and about Thursday Night. Some roads will likely become icy and snow covered so use extreme caution if you have travel plans.
High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s with wind chills lowering into the single digits and teens. Winds on Thursday will be out of the south, west, or north at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Thursday Night will be out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.
-Surface map valid for 12 PM CST Thursday. Light rain should begin to develop in Northern Minnesota between 12pm-2pm Thursday. (Map from the HPC)
-By 6pm Thursday, cold air will be pouring SE across the Northland which will cause the rain to change to snow from west to east. The pink dashed line is the rain/snow line at 6pm Thursday. (Map from the HPC)
-A slight risk for at least 4″ of snow Thursday Night in far Northern Minnesota per HPC.
-By 6 PM Thursday, there’s a 20-30% chance that snow accumulations will reach at least 1″ in Northern Minnesota, west-northwest of Duluth. (HPC)
-For Thursday Night, after 6pm there’s a better chance for at least 1″ of snow in much of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. HPC puts the risk at 40-70%.
-15z SREF 500mb VORT map for 6 PM Thursday. The system moving through Tomorrow is quite potent, quite a bit of energy=decent lift which will result in precipitation in the Northland. Nice “U” shape trough moving into Northcentral Minnesota Tomorrow Evening.
-And the 500mb VORT map for 9 PM Thursday per 15z SREF model. The system attempts to close off a bit in Northern Minnesota later Thursday Evening.
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (November 23rd-25th)
Forecaster confidence: Above Average.
Flurries or snow showers could linger into Friday with some lake effect snow possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, affecting Northern Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Looking dry Friday Night and most of Saturday. A chance for light snow and flurries will appear Saturday Night into Sunday as a clipper passes north of our area.
High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Friday with 20s and a few 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast (November 26th-December 1st)
Forecaster confidence: Below Average.
Computer models are a mess for next week so confidence is extremely low on what will happen. Still have to watch this whole period for a possible snow event, but can’t really nail down the timing this far out, stay tuned! Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Patchy fog possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 33 to 38. Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.
.Thanksgiving Day… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible early. A few rain showers possible later in the day. High 45 to 50. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming.
.Thursday Night… Windy and colder with some snow. Total accumulations of up to 1″ possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 18 to 23. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Friday… Breezy and colder. Flurries or snow showers possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 23 to 28. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 15 to 20.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 27 to 32.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 32
Low: 18
Sunrise Thursday: 7:22 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:27 PM CST
Tim
Leave a Reply