/Issued 3:23 PM CST, Thursday, January 3rd, 2012/
*Weather pattern could turn a little more active as we head through next week. Below is the 500mb map for NEXT Thursday, January 10, 2012 per HPC.
The trough/upper low in the Central U.S. may affect the Northland sometime the middle-end of next week. Another trough could also dig into the Northwest U.S. later next week, and that may have implications on our weather for the weekend of January 12th.
Note: We will be dealing with a split flow for most of next week though, and computer models always struggle when there’s a split flow, bottom line is that nothing is set in stone just yet, but just make a note of it that there could be a little bit of trouble brewing-especially from the middle of next week into next weekend.
*As I stated above, quite a bit of model spread by the middle of next week. The map shown below is from the HPC and indicates high uncertainty with the overall upper level pattern. The black lines are the Ensemble means forecast. Green lines are the HPC forecast.
LRC verification for December 2012:
Source: Josh Herman. Follow him on twitter @OSNW3
Days with snow (0.1″ or greater accumulation)
Bismarck, ND:
Actual: 13
Forecast: 11
Error: 2
Fargo, ND:
Actual: 13
Forecast: 8
Error: 5
Green Bay, WI:
Actual: 8
Forecast: 5
Error: 3
Hougton, MI:
Actual: 9
Forecast: 15
Error: 6
Madison, WI:
Actual: 9
Forecast: 4
Error: 5
Milwaukee, WI:
Actual: 5
Forecast: 4
Error: 1
Minneapolis, MN:
Actual: 10
Forecast: 6
Error: 4
Rochester, MN:
Actual: 8
Forecast: 7
Error: 1
Wausau, WI:
Actual: 8
Forecast: 5
Error: 3
Duluth, MN:
Actual: 12
Forecast: 11
Error: 1
Total snowfall for December 2012:
Bismarck, ND:
Actual: 12.2″
Forecast: 6.8″
Error: 5.4″
Fargo, ND:
Actual: 5.1″
Forecast: 19.7″
Error: 14.6″
Green Bay, WI:
Actual: 22.8″
Forecast: 24.2″
Error: 1.4″
Houghton, MI:
Actual: 17.0″
Forecast: 20.5″
Error: 3.5″
Madison, WI:
Actual: 23.4″
Forecast: 5.3″
Error: 18.1″
Milwaukee, WI:
Actual: 6.9″
Forecast: 1.3″
Error: 5.6″
Minneapolis, MN:
Actual: 15.0″
Forecast: 10.4″
Error: 4.6″
Rochester, MN:
Actual: 14.4″
Forecast: 6.9″
Error: 7.5″
Wausau, WI:
Actual: 21.8″
Forecast: 31.6″
Error: 9.8″
Duluth, MN:
Actual: 13.2″
Forecast: 13.6″
Error: 0.4″
January 2013 Forecast for Duluth, Minnesota based off the LRC: *Updated*
Total snowfall: 28.3″
Normal: 19.4″
Mean temperature: 13.0F
Normal: 10.2F
Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder: 13
Number of days with at least 0.1″ of snow: 16
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1030mb covered the Central Plains with low pressure of 1002mb in Northwest Ontario. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy in our area Today with some Morning flurries along with lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior. High temperatures were in the teens and 20s with winds out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
*Something you don’t see too often. Warmer in North Dakota and much of Central-Western Canada late This Afternoon compared to Southern Minnesota, Iowa, and much of the Central Plains. The map below is the 850mb temperature as of 3 PM. +6C in parts of Western North Dakota vs. -8C in Southern Minnesota. The chinooks are blowing!!!
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A northwest flow is in place over the Upper Midwest with 3 upper troughs, one was over the Northeast U.S., the other moving into the Pacific Northwest, and the last one was over the Southwest U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Northwest Minnesota to 0 to -8C in the rest of Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 3rd)
Strong warm air advection on the nose of a 40-65 knot NW low level jet will occur Tonight with H85 temperatures rising to between +4 and -2C by daybreak. Unfortunately, this warm air won’t really make it to the surface. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph. Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue Tonight.
*Heavy snow potential This Evening in Southern New Mexico and West Texas, yes that’s right West Texas! Various winter storm warnings and advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service for those areas Tonight.
Friday and Friday Night (January 4th)
Highs Tomorrow will warm into the 20s and 30s with northwest or southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph. Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the west, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy skies are forecast through this period.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (January 5th-7th)
An area of low pressure will scoot east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, this system won’t have much moisture to work with, but there should be just enough to produce some flakes or a few snow showers around the Northland. Winds will also be somewhat favorable for the potential of a little bit of lake effect snow near Lake Superior with E/NE winds on Saturday, shifting to the N Saturday Night. This doesn’t look like a big lake effect event, but a dusting of snow is certainly possible on Saturday near Lake Superior.
Looks dry on Sunday, and then on Monday we could be dealing with some more flurries as a clipper passes through Ontario.
High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens both Saturday Night and Sunday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(January 8th-13th)
Weather maps look quite active during most of next week with multiple systems coming out of the Western/Southern U.S. If these storms take a favorable track, then we could be dealing with some snow or a wintry mix of precipitation in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between the 9th-13th or from Wednesday-Sunday. Near to above average temperatures are forecast during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 7 to 12. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries or snow showers possible. High 21 to 26.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 5 to 10.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Friday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:34 PM CST
Tim
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