/Issued 2:13 PM CST, Saturday, January 5th, 2013/
*Could be dealing with at least a little bit of snow in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin 1 week from Today. The map below is the ECMWF ensemble model (12z run) valid for Sunday Morning, January 13, 2013. Surface low over Southern Lake Michigan might be able to throw some snow back into parts of the Northland.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A weak area of low pressure averaging 1014mb has moved into Western Wisconsin as of 2 PM. Not much has been going on Today even with this low moving through the Northland. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with a few flurries in spots. High temperatures were cooler compared to Friday, but remained above average Today with 20s and lower 30s in all but far Northern Minnesota where highs stayed in the teens. Winds were out of the north, east, or south at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Two potent mid/upper level troughs were tracking E/NE out of the Northern and Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. Height falls of 60-150 meters were occurring Today across much of the Upper Midwest and Central Plains per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 1 PM ranged from 0 to -6C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 5th)
Low pressure will reach Northern Lake Michigan later Tonight while an upper trough moves through the Upper Midwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with a few snow showers or flurries possible. Might see up to 1-2″ of accumulation by daybreak, mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior, including Northern Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…and Iron Counties. Low temperatures will range from the single digits below to low teens above zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the north, east, or west at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (January 6th)
Dry during this period with high temperatures in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens. Partly cloudy skies are expected with winds shifting from the north/west to the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (January 7th-9th)
Might see a few snow flurries on Monday, mainly along the Ontario-Minnesota border as a clipper tracks north of our area. Another disturbance could bring a little bit of snow to parts of the Northland on Wednesday (9th) Doesn’t look like a lot at the moment though. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s from Monday through Wednesday with low temperatures Monday Night in the single digits and teens. Lows Tuesday Night are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(January 10th-15th)
Were still looking at a potential for some snow or mixed precipitation at times from the 10th-13th in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A low pressure system or two could eject out of the Western/Central U.S. between late next week and next weekend, but obviously with it being quite a ways down the road, the computer models are displaying absolutely no agreement at the moment.
Note: The LRC forecasts 6.2″ of snow in Duluth from January 12-14, so in other words a lengthy event, but snow totals aren’t overly impressive since it would be falling in a span of 3 days.
Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 10th-13th with near to below average temperatures for the 14th-15th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible. Low 5 to 10. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 18 to 23. Wind northwest, becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 18 to 23.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. High 28 to 33.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Sunday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:37 PM CST
Tim
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