/Issued 3:29 PM CST, Monday, January 7th, 2013/
-Northcentral U.S. surface observations from 4 PM Today. It’s above freezing in much of the region Today. It’s also warmer again Today near Lake Superior compared to Southern Minnesota. Upper 30s and lower 40s up north vs. low to mid 30s down south.
-Minnesota snow depth map as of January 3, 2013. Much of the state has anywhere from 2-4″ of snow on the ground with a few areas in the state with greater than 8″. Central-Northern Lake County in Northeast Minnesota is doing the best with a snow depth of 12″+ as of last Thursday.
*January 5, 2012 snow depth was poor in most of Minnesota with no snow on the ground in early January of last year in Western-Southern Minnesota.
Weather Tidbits:
*Today is day number 2 so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32F at Duluth, Minnesota. Note: January 2012 had 11 days at or above 32F, and 4 days with a high temperature of at least 40F.
*It appears that the weather pattern will become a bit more active in the Northland later this week. The last active cycle for Duluth occurred from December 9-18, 2012. During that stretch, we picked up 1.15″ of precipitation and 9.4″ of snow.
*January seems to be following the trend we had in December with some cold periods, offset by significant thaws! Looking back at last month, we had two stretches of warmth in Duluth. The first one occurred from the 1st-6th and the other from the 14th-16th.
*January 7, 2013 U.S. snow depth map. 56.8% of the U.S. is covered by snow, which is up from 10.3% at this time last month.
*Snow depth comparison is quite remarkable. Here’s the snow depth from January 7, 2012. Just 12.9% of the U.S. was covered by snow 1 year ago Today.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Deep low pressure of 990mb was over Northern Ontario late This Afternoon. Strong westerly winds south of that low resulted in a day of unseasonable warmth in the Northland. High temperatures were in the 30s with even a few locations, like Superior and Downtown Duluth getting into the lower 40s. Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A potent disturbance is moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today with strong height falls of 60-180 meters per RAP model analysis. A vigorous upper low/trough continues to dig S/SE through the Southwest U.S. A west-northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -4 to -8C in Northern Minnesota to 0 to -2C over the rest of Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 7th)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area and there might be a few flurries in extreme Northern Minnesota. Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with winds from the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 8th)
More mild temperatures are on tap during this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with some light snow and flurries affecting our area, especially from Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Note: Snowfall accumulations could reach 1-2″, mainly over the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland regions. Locations farther south won’t pick up much snow, perhaps a dusting to half inch at best. Winds during this period will be out of the south, southeast, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
*1/7/13, 12z RGEM total precipitation forecast for the Tuesday PM event. Liquid amounts of 0.10″ or less should result in about an inch or less of snowfall, with maybe 2″ of snow in far Northern Minnesota.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Wednesday through Friday (January 9th-11th)
Low pressure passes north of our area on Wednesday. Flurries might linger into the Morning hours, but most of Wednesday into Thursday Morning look dry at this time. A second weather system could affect Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Friday…This one may bring some gulf moisture north into our area, but with so much warm air in place, much of the precipitation that falls could be in the form of rain vs. snow or ice. One thing that has happened in Today’s model runs is for somewhat cooler temperatures at 850mb and also at the surface, if this ends up verifying, then we could see some icing and wet snow accumulation along with the rain. Certainly something to watch during the next 24-36 hours. The round of precipitation later this week will be caused by two lows…One lifting N/NE out of the Southern Plains while the other heads east out of the Northern Plains.
High temperatures on Wednesday and Friday will be in the 20s and 30s. Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 30s. Low temperatures Wednesday Night are forecast to be in the teens and 20s. Lows Thursday Night will mainly be in the 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(January 12th-17th)
A third low pressure system is on track to bring us some snow or mixed precipitation from Friday Night into early Sunday (12th-14th) I’m still leaning toward a 1-4″ snowfall for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with this 3rd system. Looks like a clipper may affect our area sometime between the 16th-17th, this could mean a bit more snow for us if it takes a favorable track.
Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 10 to 15. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Late afternoon snow showers or flurries possible. High 30 to 35. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Snow showers or flurries possible under mostly cloudy skies. Total snowfall accumulations less than 1″. Low 18 to 23. Wind becoming southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Thursday… Increasing cloudiness. High 33 to 38.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. A mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain possible. Low 30 to 33.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 33 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:39 PM CST
Tim
Leave a Reply