/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 19th, 2013/
*Instead of melting the snow pack were adding to it across much of the Upper Midwest. As of March 19, 2013: 85% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow vs. just 2% at this time last year.
*This next image shows the snow water equivalent as of March 19, 2013. There’s a lot of water in the snow pack in much of Western-Northern Minnesota (as much as 2-3″ in spots) This isn’t good if you live in the Red River Valley or near any river in Minnesota for that matter.
This snow pack isn’t going anywhere thru at least April 1st. This is bad because eventually temperatures will warm up (possibly significantly) and this snow will melt. The longer it stays cold (no melting) the worse it may be in terms of flooding as we head through April. The ideal scenario is that we see a slow thaw, about a week or so of temperatures in the 40s, lows near freezing with no precipitation. Getting that to happen is easier said than done.
The good news in the short term is that it doesn’t look will be adding to the current snow pack anytime soon in most of Minnesota, the bad news is that temperatures will stay cold which means virtually no melting of the snow.
*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Location: Bayfield, Ashland and Iron County Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing…Washburn…Bayfield…Iron River…Mason…Drummond…Cable…Ashland…High Bridge…Clam Lake…Butternut…Upson…Hurley…and Gile.
Timing: Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.
Discussion: Lake effect snow showers will continue through Wednesday Evening. The snow showers could be heavy at times. Northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph Tonight and to around 25 mph on Wednesday will cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Near whiteout conditions may occur at times Tonight and Tomorrow. Roads will be snow covered and slippery. Travel conditions will be difficult.
Total snowfall accumulations: 4-8″ with locally higher amounts approaching 12″.
This winter storm warning for heavy snow means that periods of heavy snow can be expected. If you travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination. Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle. Be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many hours for help to arrive.
-Last week’s temperature departure map. Cold!
-Last week’s precipitation percent of mean.
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
March 10-16, 2013
3/10: 33F/1 degree above normal
3/11: 28F/4 degrees below normal
3/12: 22F/11 degrees below normal
3/13: 32F/1 degree below normal
3/14: 38F/5 degrees above normal
3/15: 33F/1 degree below normal
3/16: 19F/15 degrees below normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
March 10-16, 2013
3/10: 23F/8 degrees above normal
3/11: 21F/5 degrees above normal
3/12: 15F/1 degree below normal
3/13: 3F/13 degrees below normal
3/14: 11F/6 degrees below normal
3/15: 17F/Normal
3/16: 1F/17 degrees below normal
Precipitation total for March 10-16, 2013: 0.19″
Normal: 0.32″
Departure: -0.13″
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***LRC verification for Duluth, Minnesota***
Snowfall forecast for March 10-16: 5.2″
Actual: 5.6″
Error: 0.4″
Precipitation forecast for March 10-16: 0.31″
Actual: 0.19″
Error: 0.12″
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Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb /29.47″/ was over Eastern Ontario while a ridge of high pressure averaging 1024-1032mb /30.24″-30.47″/ stretched from the Northern Plains to the Central Plains as of 3 PM Today. Is it cold enough for ya? Despite some sun, high temperatures were only in the teens and 20s which is well below average for this time of year. A brisk northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph caused some blowing and drifting snow Today and also put an extra chill to an already cold day. The cold temperatures and the NW wind coming off Lake Superior led to some lake effect snow Today, mainly in Ashland and Iron County with a few inches of accumulation reported in that area.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis
Northwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest as a large upper trough and mid/upper level low spins around to our east. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -10 to -18C in Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Wednesday Night (March 19th-20th)
High pressure will remain over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this period with low pressure centered east of Lake Superior. A cold airmass will remain over our area with a northwest flow locked in place. Low temperatures Tonight and Wednesday Night will range from around 10 above to 10 below zero with even colder temperatures possible for Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be similar to Today with teens and 20s expected. Northwest winds will continue at 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph occurring Tonight, mainly near Lake Superior. Note: Wind chills Tonight and Wednesday Morning are forecast to range from 10 below to around 25 below in parts of the Northland. Periods of lake effect snow along the South Shore (see winter storm warning statement above) and some flakes in the Arrowhead Tonight and Tomorrow.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (March 21st-23rd)
A quiet weather pattern is forecast through this period. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below to around 10 above zero. Lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(March 24th-29th)
A cold and dry end to March is looking likely for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Below normal temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy and cold. Clear to partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind chills approaching 20 below at times.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 16 to 21. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Morning wind chills approaching 20 below.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Cold. Low 0 to 5. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 35
Low: 19
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:11 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:22 PM CDT
Tim
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