/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Monday, April 29th, 2013/
4″ or greater snowfall potential for Wednesday Night and Thursday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4″ of snow.
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4″ of snow.
12″ or greater snowfall potential for Wednesday Night and Thursday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Blue=Slight risk for at least 12″ of snow.
*FLOOD ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Location: Southeast Carlton County Minnesota. Northern Ashland including the city of Ashland, Bayfield, Northern Douglas and Northern Iron County in Wisconsin.
Valid: Until 3:30 PM CDT Thursday.
Discussion: A small stream flood advisory for rain and melting snow has been issued for parts of the Northland.
Some locations that will experience minor flooding include:
-The Montreal River in Hurley.
-The Bad River Headwaters east of Mellen.
-The Bad River from Mellen to Odanah.
-The Whittlesey Creek near Ashland.
-The Nemadji and Poplar River in Douglas County.
Excessive runoff from spring snow melt and potential rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams and ponding of water on country roads and farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A nice spring day throughout the Northland under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the 60s to lower 70s with some 50s in parts of Northern Minnesota and also in Downtown Duluth and in Superior. Note: Today marked the 4th day in a row with a high temp of at least 60F at the Duluth Airport. Winds Today were south, north or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (April 29th)
A strong area of low pressure(989-994mb) is forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Western Minnesota Tonight. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will be moving into the Northland later Tonight. A strengthening low level jet of 30-50 knots is expected to develop later Tonight with a strong surge of warm and moist advection spreading into the Northland as this system approaches.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing, especially after Midnight. The amount of MUCAPE (elevated instability) is actually quite impressive for the time of year with values of 500-1000 j/kg Overnight along with lifted indices of 0 to -4C per latest model guidance.
Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s closer to Lake Superior. South or east winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (April 30th)
Deep low pressure moves into Ontario this period with a cold front passing through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin prior to Tuesday Afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, but this threat will end from west to east once the cold front moves through. A few showers could return to parts of our area Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be out of the south, west or north at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Low.
Wednesday through Friday (May 1st-3rd)
This period could feature some interesting weather in parts of our area, but the computer models continue to display vastly different solutions as to where a band of precipitation sets-up, and how much of it falls as snow. Stay tuned!
Here’s what is known: A cold front will stall out south/east of our area from mid to late week while a very strong area of high pressure (1045mb) sets-up to our west/north. This high will pull cold air down into the Upper Midwest while moisture runs up and over that stalled boundary to our SE. Another key component to this forecast will be a developing ridge to our east, how far west that ridge is will determine where the rain or snow will be from Wednesday-Friday.
At this time it appears that Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota have the best chance at seeing snow or rain during this period while Northern Minnesota remains generally dry. There is a potential for several inches of snow accumulation especially in the Wednesday Night/Thursday time frame in far Eastern MN and Northwest WI.
High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s during this period with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.
*15z 4.29.13 SREF snowfall accumulation forecast for 7 AM Thursday. Certainly something to keep an eye on as there could be a band of sticking snow stretching from the Central Plains to the Northern Great Lakes later this week.
Duluth needs 6.0″ of snow to tie the snowiest year on record 1995-1996 with 135.4″.
Duluth needs 2.4″ of snow to tie the 2nd snowiest year on record 1949-1950 with 131.8″.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(May 4th-8th)
A cutoff low and an upper level trough is forecast to move north/northeast out of the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from Saturday-Monday (4th-6th) Temperatures should warm enough by this time so that if precipitation occurs it would fall as rain. There’s another system targeting the Upper Midwest early next week, probably on Tuesday/Wednesday (7th-8th) This one could bring showers or thunderstorms to the Northland. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly after 4 AM. Low 37 to 42. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly before 11 AM. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph during the Morning, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 45 to 50.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. High 35 to 40.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 56
Low: 36
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:55 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:18 PM CDT
Tim
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