/Issued 4:19 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 25, 2013/
-Some impressive dew points showing up in the Dakotas Today. Yellow and light green colors indicate dew points in the 70s at 3 PM Today! It’s not unusual for it to get this humid this far north, just doesn’t happen that often, maybe a half dozen times (give/take a few) or so during the summer. (Source; RTMA model)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm front was draped over Northern Iowa late This Afternoon with a cold front over the Central Dakotas along with an area of low pressure averaging 1001mb. Another very nice late June day in the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs were mainly in the 80s with 70s closer to Lake Superior. Note: A few spots especially over Northern Minnesota were nearing 90 degrees as of 4 PM Today. It was rather muggy Today with dew points generally in the upper 50s and 60s. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 25th)
The atmosphere is quite unstable and it will remain that way during the night with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -7C. But, as I pointed out yesterday, there just isn’t any sort of front or disturbance nearby to help generate thunderstorms. The main zone for thunderstorm activity Tonight looks to be over the Dakotas and in Western/Southern parts of Minnesota. Some of this activity may begin to affect the Western/Southern parts of the Northland later Tonight but none of these storms are expected to be severe due to a marginal low level jet and very weak winds aloft. Heavy downpours could occur, however, due to the abundant moisture in place. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with patchy fog possible near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (June 26th)
A trough/cold front is forecast to track east and through the Northland during this period. Still looks plenty unstable over our area Tomorrow with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -6C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times this period as the front moves through. Mid level winds are expected to increase a bit Tomorrow with wind speeds up around 30 knots with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear generally on the weaker side of around 30 knots or less. The potential is there for isolated strong to even severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow with hail and gusty winds being the main threats. Heavy downpours will also be a threat with a continued humid airmass overhead. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.
-Rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Wednesday. Looks like most of Northern MN and Northwest WI could receive a quarter to half inch of rain, but with thunderstorms some spots could see quite a bit more. (Source; Weather Prediction Center)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (June 27th-29th)
A northwest flow aloft develops during this period with an upper low/trough developing to our north. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Thursday and Friday with a few showers also possible on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s Thursday and Friday with 60s and 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s Thursday Night and Friday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(June 30th-July 5th)
Temperatures through this period are forecast to be near seasonal averages. It’s also looking like a fairly quiet/dry weather pattern for our area as a N/NW flow occurs through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Low 60 to 65 with 50s near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Friday… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 73
Low: 52
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:07 PM CDT
Tim
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