/Issued 4:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 16, 2013/
*Something to watch on Thursday as the SREF model indicates there could be enough wind shear in place to support a risk for isolated tornadoes in much of Northern Minnesota. Of course things could change so stay tuned. (Source, 15z SREF model)
*Here’s another tool from the SREF model which again shows the tornado potential forecast valid for Thursday PM. When looking at this map values >1 can lead to tornadic storms if other ingredients are in place. (Source, 15z SREF model)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
-The high temperature Today (July 16) reached 90 degrees for the 1st time in 2013. The last time Duluth had a high temperature of at least 90 F was on July 22, 2012.
-Today marks the 20th day so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 F and the 40th day so far this year with a high temperature of at least 70 F. Note: 85 days is the yearly average for the number of days with a high temp of at least 70 F.
-The 1st half of July has been warmer and drier than average. 69.0 degrees is the average temperature for July 1-15. Total precipitation 0.84″ which is 1.20″ below average.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A hot and muggy day in the Northland. Areas of fog near Lake Superior burned off This Morning and a wind shift from the east to the southwest did occur in the Twin Ports early This Afternoon, this resulted in a big temperature jump between Noon-2 PM Today at the Duluth Harbor (70 degrees to 91 degrees) Dew points were in the 60s to lower 70s. Skies ranged from partly to mostly sunny and winds were out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.
4 PM heat index values in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin:
Grand Rapids: 91 degrees
Duluth Airport: 92 degrees
Sky Harbor: 97 degrees
Aitkin: 92 degrees
Brainerd: 92 degrees
Hinckley: 92 degrees
Superior: 95 degrees
Hayward: 93 degrees
Siren: 93 degrees
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 16th)
A cold front will settle into far Northern Minnesota Tonight. A moist and unstable airmass already in place combined with the lift provided by the cold front should be able to generate a few showers and thunderstorms Tonight mainly over the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland region. A few of the storms could become strong with hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain will also be possible due to the abundant moisture. Lows will be in the 60s and 70s with south, north, or west winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (July 17th)
A cold front will settle slowly south across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period. Plenty of instability and moisture is forecast to develop along and ahead of this front with CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7C. 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear is forecast to range from around 30-35 knots with mid level winds generally less than 35 knots. Dew points will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS of 1.30-1.90″.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at times in the Northland Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. A few of these storms could turn severe during the Afternoon/Evening hours with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats along with torrential rain.
Highs Tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the southwest, north, or east at 10 to 15 mph.
*Wednesday’s severe weather probability forecast. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (July 18th-20th)
Thursday: A cold front will stall out over the Northern half of Minnesota while an area of low pressure tracks east out of the Northern Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in our area with severe thunderstorms possible due to ample amounts of instability and wind shear over the area. May even see a supercell/tornado risk develop Thursday PM in some parts of the Northland. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s from the Brainerd Lakes to Hayward Lakes area. Lows Thursday Night will mainly be in the 60s.
Still humid on Friday although it will begin to turn less humid from north-south as a cold front exits the Northland Friday Morning. A few showers or thunderstorms might linger into the Morning hours otherwise it’s looking dry Friday PM-Saturday. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 50s. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s.
*Here’s Thursday’s severe thunderstorm probabilities forecast. Note the red 30% area over Northern Minnesota, an enhanced severe threat coming up on Thursday the way it looks now. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Dry weather is expected on Sunday (21st) Could see a few showers or thunderstorms return at times from the 22nd-25th. Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Warm and humid. Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Warm and humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible mainly later in the Afternoon. High 87 to 92. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Thursday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:57 PM CDT