/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Sunday, August 25, 2013/
-Enhanced satellite loop from Saturday Night/early Sunday AM. Note the different thunderstorm clusters (blue/green colors on the map) that rolled east across Northern Minnesota, Lake Superior and Southern Ontario. (Source; Unisys weather)
-Those storms formed on the north edge of a blazing dome of heat with the center of the upper level ridge covering much of the Central Plains Today. The map below is valid from 7 AM Today and shows the 500mb weather pattern. (Source; RAP real time weather)
Peak heat index (feels like temperature) values as of 3 PM Today
Sky Harbor Airport: 102F
Superior, WI: 102F
Ashland, WI: 101F
Hibbing, MN: 101F
Hinckley, MN: 100F
Duluth, MN (Airport) 100F
Two Harbors, MN: 100F
Aitkin, MN: 100F
Brainerd, MN: 99F
Hayward, WI: 99F
Crane Lake, MN: 99F
Grand Rapids, MN: 96F
International Falls, MN: 94F
*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Location:
Much of East Central Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
Until 9 PM CDT Monday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Pine River MN…Brainerd MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Floodwood MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Hurley WI…Grantsburg WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Exeland WI…Winter WI…Park Falls WI…and Phillips WI.
Discussion:
High temperatures on Monday are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees once again with heat index values of 95 to around 105 degrees.
Impacts:
The very warm temperatures and high heat index values will be especially dangerous for those most at risk such as those in poor health and the elderly and those participating in strenuous outdoor activities.
A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids…Stay in air-conditioned room if possible…Stay out of the sun…And check up on relatives and neighbors.
Also…Remember pets and farm animals during the heat. Provide shade and plenty of fresh water. Never leave pets in a vehicle for any length of time.
-Areas in orange remain in a heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday. It’s possible that the heat headlines may be extended into Tuesday for the Twin Ports area. (Source; National Weather Service Duluth)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
*Today is the 5th day so far this year that the high temperature reached at least 90 degrees.
*Today is the 36th day so far this year that the high temperature reached at least 80 degrees. Note: 2012 has 48 days at or above 80F.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
August 18-24, 2013
High temperatures:
8/18: 82F/8 degrees above normal
8/19: 88F/14 degrees above normal
8/20: *91F/17 degrees above normal
8/21: 88F/14 degrees above normal
8/22: 80F/7 degrees above normal
8/23: 80F/7 degrees above normal
8/24: 87F/14 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
8/18: 61F/6 degrees above normal
8/19: 66F/12 degrees above normal
8/20: 69F/15 degrees above normal
8/21: 65F/11 degrees above normal
8/22: 54F/Normal
8/23: 51F/3 degrees below normal
8/24: 62F/9 degrees above normal
Total precipitation from 8/18-8/24: Trace
Average: 0.85″
Departure: -0.85″
-Last week’s temperature departure map. (Source; Midwest Regional Climate Center)
-Last week’s precipitation departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Blazing heat throughout the Northland Today as we sit in the warm sector of a low pressure system which is moving through Ontario with a cold front trailing SW into Northern/Western Minnesota late This Afternoon. High temperatures were generally in the 90s Today with heat index values of 95 to around 105 degrees. Dew points were in the 60s and 70s. Winds were out of the south, southwest, or variable in direction at 5-10 mph with higher gusts over parts of the Northland. Skies ranged from partly to mostly sunny Today with some Morning showers and thunderstorms affecting mainly Northern portions of Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (August 25)
Another warm one! Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across the area with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms as a weak boundary slips south/east out of Northern Minnesota.
There is plenty of energy in the air to support convection with CAPE of 2000-4000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -3 to -8C. Lots of juice as well with PWS of 1.50-2.00″ and dew points in the 60s and 70s. Wind shear isn’t the best though with 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear generally around 30 knots. Mid level winds are weak, and the low level jet is fairly weak as well. But, with that said there might be just enough convergence along the boundary to produce a few storms Tonight, primarily in East Central Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin. The cap is strong though and could prevent much development during the night. Just gonna have to wait and see. If storms can go they could be strong to severe with high winds the main threat along with dangerous lightning and heavy rain, and possibly some hail.
Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with south, north, or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (August 26)
More heat and humidity ahead during this period with highs on Monday in the 80s and 90s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 60s and 70s. Dew points remain in the tropical range, especially south of Highway 2 where 65-75 dews are expected to be in place…North of here a slightly less humid airmass is forecast for the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland areas with dew points in the 50s and some 60s.
The front moving through Tonight is expected to stall out over Southern/Central Minnesota on Monday, this front combined with a surface low moving east out of South Dakota should provide the necessary trigger for some showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Monday Night. At the moment it appears that the Southern half of the Northland will have the best chance at picking up at least a bit of rain, but this could change.
As for the severe weather parameters…These look pretty good for Monday PM with plenty of instability and moisture around. Wind shear looks a little stronger as well with around 30-45 knots of 6KM and Effective Bulk Shear. Basically boils down to can the cap be overcome…If it can, then expect some storms to bubble up, but if the cap wins out then we stay dry.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (August 27-29)
Still looks plenty warm through this period with a large upper level ridge parked to our south. A low pressure disturbance should be exiting to our east on Tuesday, then will watch a cold front move SE across the region sometime Tuesday Night or Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the Northland Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry weather on Thursday.
80s and 90s are forecast for daytime highs both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(August 30-September 4)
Could see a few showers and thunderstorms at times during this period…Actually looks like a fairly vigorous system may be tracking through the Upper Midwest around Labor Day (2nd) If those trends verify, then we could be looking at a severe weather threat sometime around the 2nd/3rd of September. Above average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Monday*
.Tonight… Very warm and muggy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 70 to 75. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming variable around 10 mph.
.Monday… Very warm and muggy. Partly cloudy. Late Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. High 85 to 90. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Peak heat index values around 95 degrees.
.Monday Night… Showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 85 to 90.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 62 to 67.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 87 to 92.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 73
Low: 53
Sunrise Monday: 6:21 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:59 PM CDT
Tim
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