/Issued 3:15 PM CST, Saturday, January 25, 2014/
-Here’s a world view of 850mb temperatures for early Monday Morning at around 1 AM CT per 18z GFS model. Note the 3 pockets of brutally cold air and the highly amplified jet stream pattern.
Snow stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Note: Number of days with snow means an accumulation of 0.1″ or greater.
December snowfall total: 39.9″
Normal: 17.7″
Departure: +22.2″
Days with snow: 19
Number of 1″ or greater snow events: 9
January snowfall total (thru the 24th) 7.6″
Normal: 19.4″
Note: We will finish below average this month it’s just a matter of by how much. I’m thinking will finish around 10″ below average.
Number of days with snow so far this month: 9
Number of 1″ or greater snow events: 4
Winter snow stats (December 1-January 24)
Total snowfall: 47.5″
Departure: +14.1″
Last winter’s total thru January 24: 18.6″
Annual snow stats (July 1-January 24)
Total snowfall: 52.5″
Departure: +3.0″
Last year’s annual total: 29.9″ thru January 24.
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*WIND CHILL WATCH*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A wind chill watch has been issued for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
Sunday Evening through Tuesday Morning.
Counties included in the watch:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the watch:
International Falls…Grand Rapids…Walker…Brainerd…Aitkin…Hinckley…Cloquet…Duluth…Hibbing…Ely…Orr…Two Harbors…Silver Bay…Grand Marais…Superior…Bayfield…Ashland…Hurley…Siren…Spooner…Hayward…and Park Falls.
Wind chill values:
40 below to 60 below at times starting Sunday Night and continuing through Tuesday Morning. Under these conditions exposed flesh can experience frost bite in less than 10 minutes.
**A wind chill watch means there is the potential for a combination of very cold air and strong winds to create dangerously low wind chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation**
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Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
High pressure of 1019mb was moving into the Central Plains This Afternoon while low pressure of 998mb moves southeast out of Southern Saskatchewan. Lots of sunshine throughout the area Today but it was chilly with highs ranging from around zero to the single digits. Winds were out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 25)
Low pressure will move into the Northern Plains Tonight and should move into Northern Iowa by daybreak. A swath of snow will accompany this system as it moves southeast Tonight. The heaviest snow is forecast to fall in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota where 2-5″ of snow could accumulate Tonight.
Here in the Northland expect lighter amounts of snow and the bulk of that snow looks like it will be over the Brainerd Lakes region toward the Twin Ports and down toward Shell Lake and Siren. Snow should begin after 8-9 PM in the Western areas, and could reach the Twin Ports and parts of Northwest Wisconsin after Midnight.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero. Winds will shift to a more southerly direction during the night at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (January 26)
A major arctic outbreak will spread south/east and into the Northland during this period as 850mb temperatures tumble to between -30 and -36C. Low pressure will be tracking east/southeast through the Upper Midwest and into the Central Great Lakes by Sunday Night. This system will bring a little bit of snow to the area Tomorrow with mainly dry weather expected Tomorrow Night.
Note: Snowfall amounts on Sunday should only be around 1″, maybe 2″ in a few locales.
Highs on Sunday won’t be too bad with readings in the single digits and lower teens, chilly yes, but it will get worse…Trust me. Lows Sunday Night will fall into the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible over Northern Minnesota.
Expect winds to swing around to the northwest during this period with wind speeds averaging 10 to 25 mph but there will be higher gusts. Blowing and drifting snow is possible especially in Western-Southwest parts of the Northland Tomorrow, and then area-wide but especially in open country Tomorrow Night.
Wind chill values are forecast to fall into the 40 below to 60 below range by late Sunday Night.
-15z SREF snowfall accumulation forecast. Looks like all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin can expect to pick up 1-2″ of snow between Tonight and Sunday Afternoon, a few locales could get up to 3″, but I think those would be few and far between in our area.
-NWS hazards map. The entire Northland is in a wind chill watch Sunday Evening through Tuesday Morning. Blizzard warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect for areas west-south of the Northland.
-Here’s a U.S. view of the various weather headlines that are in effect already or will go into effect at a later time, check your local NWS for additional information. Note: I outlined the blizzard warning in black.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (January 27-29)
Arctic airmass remains in place Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the single digits and teens below zero with lows in the teens, 20s, and 30s below. Breezy northwest winds will also continue which will result in dangerously low and potentially life-threatening wind chills on Monday and Tuesday.
It does look mainly dry Monday and Tuesday. A new system might bring a few snow showers to the area on Wednesday with highs warming into the single digits and teens above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 30-February 4)
Cold temperatures continue and it also looks rather dry around the Northland through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*WIND CHILL WATCH*
Timing: Sunday Evening through Tuesday Morning.
.Tonight… Increasing cloudiness. Light snow and flurries possible after Midnight. Accumulations less than 1″. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming south around 10 mph late.
.Sunday… Light snow and snow flurries under mostly cloudy skies. Daytime snow accumulations of 1″ or less. High 7 to 12. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph during the Afternoon.
.Sunday Night… Breezy and turning colder. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Dangerous wind chills of 40 below to 60 below developing late.
.Monday… Breezy and frigid with dangerous wind chills of 40 below to 60 below. Mostly sunny. High 6 below to 11 below.
.Monday Night… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills of 40 below to 60 below. Mostly clear. Low 21 below to 26 below.
.Tuesday… Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 8 below with dangerous wind chills of 40 below to 60 below especially before Noon.
.Tuesday Night… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 7 to 12.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Sunday: 7:40 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:03 PM CST
Tim
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