/Issued 2:12 PM CST, Monday, February 3, 2014/
Note: The 94th annual American Meteorological Society meeting started on Sunday and continues through February 6 in Atlanta, Georgia. I’m following this event via twitter by using the hashtag #AMS2014
During the next few days I will be posting tweets from this event:
-1.89 million tweets contained the word tornado during May 19-22 @yakishk
-Use of social media to receive weather warnings has increased in the last 2 years @timbrice
-Most people receive warnings on television but social media and internet is up. Trust in social media warnings is up, but low @JonathanBelles
-TV, sirens, and weather radios are the top ways people heard tornado warnings first. But there has been a significant increase in web-social media use in the last year @ShelbyLatinoWX
-A day 3 QPF forecast Today has the same skills a Day 1 forecast had during the mid 1990’s @TylerAllender
-Women and minorities are much more likely to use and trust social media for severe weather @KatieTheWXLady
-Facebook is behind twitter when it comes to weather warning usage and the public getting that info @AndrewDockeryWx
-Twitter could be the leading source in the future. Its increase is surprising while the main communication sources are decreasing @AndrewDockeryWx
-Trust in social media has been rising from 2012 to 2013. However trust in traditional local/national media slightly decreased @ZombieTrev5k
-Despite lots of great flood information people are not taking the proper response to a flood @timbrice17
-Forecaster confidence and tone of voice has an impact on whether people take action to warnings or not @matt_holiner
-Locations near irrigated fields record lower max temperatures due to increased soil moisture @matt_holiner
Weather Tidbits:
*2,387 record LOW temperatures vs. 793 record HIGH temperatures last month in the U.S. Source, Climate Central via @JenniferBroome
*68 consecutive days with at least 1″ of snow on the ground at the Duluth Airport (NOV 28-FEB 3) Last year we ended up with 143 straight days with a snow depth of at least 1″ (DEC 9-APR 30) Note: I don’t think will match last year’s total, but will just have to wait and see.
*15 consecutive nights with a subzero low temperature at the Duluth Airport (JAN 20-FEB 3) This is the longest streak we have seen this winter. The previous was 14 nights in a row from DEC 5-18.
*Lake Superior is nearly frozen over. 80% of Lake Superior is covered with ice as of February 3, 2014. Source GLCFS Ice Dynamics.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Not a bad winter day considering what we have dealt with lately. Skies ranged from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny with high temperatures mainly in the teens. Winds were out of the west at 5 to around 15 mph.
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*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.
Timing:
Midnight Tonight until 10 AM CST Tuesday.
Counties in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Northern Aitkin MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls
Grand Rapids
Walker
Brainerd
Hill City
Hibbing
Ely
Crane Lake
Orr
Wind chill values:
20 to 30 below. Frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 15 to 30 minutes under these conditions.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
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*Temperature departure map for last week, January 26-February 1, 2014. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
*Precipitation departure map for last week, January 26-February 1, 2014. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Tuesday Night (February 3-4)
A cold front will push south/southeast through the Northland Tonight. Won’t be any snow with this front however. This period looks generally dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tonight will range from around 10 below to 10 above. Highs Tomorrow will range from around zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens to around 20 degrees in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below. Winds Tonight will be out of the west, winds will shift to the north/northwest Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (February 5-7)
Cold temperatures will continue from mid to late week and we may add some flurries or snow showers to the mix from Thursday into Friday but don’t expect much accumulation, in fact it probably won’t add up to more than a dusting. High temperatures will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero from Wednesday through Friday. Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 8-13)
Dry weather is expected from the 8th through 11th. We may get some snow showers around here toward the 12th-13th as a system approaches from the west, but there’s plenty of time for that to change. Below average temperatures should continue from the 8th-10th, thereafter we may see milder temperatures develop with readings at least closer to average – if not above average. We shall see.
*Finally! The 12z GFS model shows a decent warmup toward the 15th-18th of February. Note the large area of +10C temperatures at 850mb, this could result in high temperatures in the 50s as far north as Southern Minnesota and Southern Wisconsin. All the extreme cold gets pushed well to the northwest into Canada. Keep in mind that this is 340+ hours down the road and things will probably change a few times between now and then. But it’s still nice to see something other than brutally cold air on the weather maps.
*Here’s the 12z EUROPEAN model for next Thursday, February 13, 2014. This model also shows milder temperatures and more of a west-east flow across our area, but there is a large area of extreme cold (purple colors on the map) across Northern and Western Canada – will it move into the Western U.S. this time around or does it come SE and right over Minnesota again? Just gonna have to wait and see.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 7 to 12. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 8 below to 13 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 2 to 7.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 2 to 7.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 21
Low: 3
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:29 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:17 PM CST
Tim
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