/Issued 2:59 PM CST, Sunday, February 9, 2014/
-The weather maps are beginning to look a little more interesting up here in the frozen tundra.
The image below is valid for Thursday Morning February 13, 2014 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model. The 2 black X’s on this map represent 2 potential trouble makers. 1 here in the Northland, and the other would be affecting the Eastern U.S. Stay tuned!
*Today marks the 21st consecutive day with a below zero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. The record is 22 days in a row – we will tie this record Monday AM, and will likely break it come Tuesday AM which means it’ll be time to celebrate with your favorite beverage on Tuesday.
*54 days with a sub-zero low temperature this winter (DEC 1-FEB 8) at Duluth, Minnesota. I still think we have a shot at getting to 60 sub-zero low temperature days by the end of this month.
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*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A wind chill advisory has been issued for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
9 PM This Evening until 10 AM CST Monday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls
Grand Rapids
Walker
Brainerd
Aitkin
Hinckley
Cloquet
Duluth
Hibbing
Ely
Crane Lake
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Finland
Isabella
Grand Marais
Superior
Bayfield
Ashland
Hurley
Siren
Shell Lake
Hayward
Park Falls
Wind chill values:
25 below to 35 below. Frostbite can occur within 15 minutes on exposed skin.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
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Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
February 2-8, 2014
High temperatures:
2/2: 11F/10 degrees below normal
2/3: 15F/6 degrees below normal
2/4: 10F/11 degrees below normal
2/5: 3F/18 degrees below normal
2/6: 3F/19 degrees below normal
2/7: 11F/11 degrees below normal
2/8: 16F/6 degrees below normal
Low temperatures:
2/2: -16F/18 degrees below normal
2/3: -5F/8 degrees below normal
2/4: -7F/10 degrees below normal
2/5: -7F/10 degrees below normal
2/6: -12F/15 degrees below normal
2/7: -11F/8 degrees below normal
2/8: -18F/22 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.00″
Normal: 0.17″
Departure: -0.17″
*Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
An impressive shot of arctic air has moved into the Northland Today with Afternoon temperatures only in the single digits below to around 10 above zero which is anywhere from 10-25 degrees colder than average for the 9th of February. Skies ranged from mostly cloudy in the north to mostly sunny across the south. Winds Today were out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
*85% ice coverage on Lake Superior as of February 9, 2014. This is actually down a bit compared to a few days ago probably due to a west/northwest wind which has shifted the ice a little more to the south/east. Source, GLCFS Ice Dynamics.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Monday Night (February 9-10)
Same old same old. Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday Night. 850mb temperatures will be in the -18 to -24C range through Monday with only slight improvement occurring Monday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with mostly clear skies for Monday and Monday Night.
Low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some locations likely bottoming out in the negative 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Northwest winds at 5 to around 20 mph will be common Tonight and Tomorrow. West or southwest winds are expected Tomorrow Night at around 10 mph.
Note: Hazardous wind chill values are likely Tonight into Monday AM.
*The entire area shaded in light blue on this map is under a wind chill advisory for Tonight and Monday Morning. Source, NWS hazards map.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (February 11-13)
There will be 2 opportunities for snow during this period with the more impressive event coming Wednesday Night/Thursday the way it looks now.
System number 1 could bring a few hours of mostly snow showers and light snowfall to the Northland from Tuesday PM-early Wednesday AM. Right now this doesn’t look like a real big deal with at most 1-2″ of snow and that seems to be targeting more Northern Minnesota based on current model data.
The second system may pack more of a punch as a pretty strong low pressure system heads east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest before it moves over the Central-Eastern Great Lakes region from Thursday into Friday. The track this system does take is still handled differently by the computer models with some showing a more northerly track, others take it more to the south. Note: For Duluth I think a more southern track would lead to more snow while a more northerly track would probably mean less snow for the Twin Ports. This system on Thursday has the potential to produce a 2-4″+ snow event across the Northland.
High temperatures are expected to be in the single digits and teens from Tuesday through Thursday with a few spots possibly climbing into the 20s on Thursday. Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
*Future radar valid for Tuesday Evening per 18z HIRES model. I circled the area of snow which will affect the Northland sometime Tuesday Night. This snow probably won’t last more than an hour or two in any given location.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 14-19)
Near to below average temperatures through this period, yes I did say near average, don’t fall over or anything. Looks like we could also see a couple of systems affect our area at times with possible snow, or maybe even a mix of winter precipitation. None of these systems look very strong right now, but there could be enough snow or mixed precip to cause some travel problems. Best guess at timing would be from the 15th-17th, and possibly again toward the 19th. This is likely to change though given the fast flow aloft.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing: 9 PM Tonight until 10 AM CST Monday.
.Tonight… Very cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 below to 18 below. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Wind chill values 25 below to 35 below.
.Monday… Very cold. Partly cloudy. High 1 to 6. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chill values 25 below to 35 below.
.Monday Night… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Increasing cloudiness. High 5 to 10.
.Tuesday Night… Light snow possible. Accumulations of 1″ or less. Mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible in the Morning. High 15 to 20.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. Low 0 to 5.
.Thursday… Snow possible. High 15 to 20.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 22
Low: 4
Sunrise Monday: 7:21 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:26 PM CST
Tim
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