/Issued 3:22 PM CST, Sunday, February 16, 2014/
*Virtually all of Lake Superior is ice covered with only a few small exceptions. Here’s a visible satellite image from 9 AM Today. The darker areas over Lake Superior represent some open water, elsewhere it’s nothing but ice/snow cover. Source, dupage web site.
A frigid start to February in the Twin Ports.
February 1-15 stats:
Average temperature: 1.8F
Departure: -11.2 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.40″
Departure: +0.04″
Total snowfall: 9.2″
Departure: +3.1″
Note: 13 days during the 1st half of this month has had a sub-zero low temperature.
*Most sub-zero low temperatures ever recorded at Duluth, Minnesota*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
So far this winter season there have been 60 days with a low temperature below zero degrees. This is an all-time record for a winter season. The previous record was 59 days which occurred in 1958-59, 1916-17, and in 1874-75.
Weather Tidbits:
*35 days (5 weeks ago) and counting since the last time the high temperature was at least 32 degrees at the Duluth Airport.
*90% of Lake Superior is covered with ice as of February 16, 2014.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
February 9-15, 2014
High temperatures:
2/9: 4F/18 degrees below normal
2/10: 4F/19 degrees below normal
2/11: 14F/9 degrees below normal
2/12: 16F/7 degrees below normal
2/13: 22F/1 degrees below normal
2/14: 14F/10 degrees below normal
2/15: 15F/9 degrees below normal
Low temperatures:
2/9: -9F/13 degrees below normal
2/10: -16F/20 degrees below normal
2/11: -17F/22 degrees below normal
2/12: 9F/4 degrees above normal
2/13: 2F/3 degrees below normal
2/14: -7F/13 degrees below normal
2/15: -7F/13 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.36″
Normal: 0.17″
Departure: +0.19″
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Lots of sunshine in our area Today but east winds coming off a nearly frozen Lake Superior managed to produce some lake clouds and even some snow showers and flurries Today from the Twin Ports on up the North Shore, none of this was very heavy though due to the minimal amount of open water currently over the big lake. High temperatures ranged from the single digits to around 10 above near Lake Superior with mid to upper teens across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 16)
Clouds will thicken up during the Evening with snow breaking out and marching east beginning toward the mid/late Evening hours in the Western/Southern areas, and then spreading farther north/east after Midnight. Temperatures will hold in the single digits and teens but the Arrowhead of Minnesota may drop into the 0 to 10 below range This Evening. East or southeast winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Monday and Monday Night (February 17)
Low pressure (basically 3 of them) will stretch from Manitoba to Missouri with movement toward the east/northeast. Strong warm air advection and plenty of upper level dynamics should result in a fairly decent snow event over the Northland from late Tonight into Monday.
Snow should be widespread in our area Tomorrow Morning and will slowly taper off from SW-NE during the Afternoon hours.
Moderate to heavy bands of snow are expected to lift through the area Tomorrow Morning into midday Tomorrow. Snowfall rates under these bands could approach 1″ per hour.
Based on model QPF and snow ratios which are forecast to be around 15:1 to 20:1 during this event I think widespread snow totals of 3-6″ can be expected by Monday PM with 6″+ amounts possible over most of Northwest Wisconsin and in Eastern Minnesota. Note: The North Shore of Lake Superior could get up to 10″ of snow thanks to the SE wind which will result in some orographic lift which will likely enhance the snow.
Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with 30s possible in Western areas. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits to around 20.
South or east winds at 10 to 20 mph are forecast Tomorrow. Winds will be out of the southwest Tomorrow Night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Tuesday through Thursday (February 18-20)
Fast moving low pressure systems will pass north of our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the precip with these lows should stay north of the border, but flurries or snow showers can’t be ruled out from time to time mainly over far Northern Minnesota. Thursday (20th) needs to be monitored for another round of possibly significant precipitation as dual low pressure, one to our NW and another over the Central Plains try to merge as they lift east/northeast later this week. Snow or a wintry mix of precipitation is possible on Thursday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Stay tuned.
High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from Tuesday through Thursday with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High
(February 21-26)
Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period as we get back into a Western ridge – Eastern trough pattern which has more or less persisted most of the winter. This will probably result in no major storms across the Upper Midwest, but the occasional clipper type system could drop a minor snowfall every now and again.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER STORM WARNING*
Timing: 2 AM to 3 PM CST Monday.
.Tonight… Breezy. Increasing cloudiness. Snow developing after Midnight. Low 5 to 10. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Monday… Snow. Breezy. High 25 to 30. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south during the Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 4-7″.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. Milder. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or a wintry mixture of precipitation possible. Low 20 to 25.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation possible. High 27 to 32.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 24
Low: 6
Sunrise Monday: 7:10 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:37 PM CST
Tim
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