/Issued 11:20 AM CST, Wednesday, February 19, 2014/
Here’s what I’m thinking at the moment for snowfall totals for Thursday and Thursday Night. I may need to update this map more than once by Thursday Afternoon. Just gonna have to wait and see. Stay tuned.
Brief discussion:
-The NAM (12z run) came in quite a bit farther east with the storm track with the low passing east of Lake Michigan now vs prior runs which had it going through Southern/Northeast Wisconsin. This more eastern solution would result in much less snow across most of the Northland. There would still be some snow, but not the heavy amounts that this model had been showing up until the past 2 model runs.
-The GFS model along with the CANADIAN model (12z run) And last night’s EURO model (00z run) still show a strong winter storm affecting the Northland.
-The SREF snowfall plume had quite the range for this storm in Duluth. As of the 09z run snow totals ranged from a meager 0.1″ to as high as 13″! The mean was right around 5″.
-Confidence isn’t the highest even though this storm is just 1 day away. This is a tricky setup dealing with phasing lows and a trough that may take on a negative tilt. There’s certainly a few things that could go wrong
with this forecast so I urge everyone to stay up to date with the latest weather information regarding this potential winter storm.
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Winter Weather Headlines
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*WINTER STORM WARNING*
A winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota, far Eastern Minnesota, and for all of Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
6 AM Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.
Counties included in the warning:
Cook MN
Lake MN
St. Louis MN
Carlton MN
Pine MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the warning:
Grand Portage
Hovland
Grand Marais
Lutsen
Silver Bay
Finland
Isabella
Two Harbors
Ely
Orr
Crane Lake
Hibbing
Floowood
Duluth
Cloquet
Wright
Moose Lake
Hinckley
Sandstone
Pine City
Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Bayfield
Washburn
Ashland
High Bridge
Mellen
Clam Lake
Butternut
Gile
Hurley
Upson
Montreal
Siren
Danbury
Grantsburg
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Trego
Hayward
Exeland
Winter
Park Falls
Phillips
Ogema
Fifield
Discussion:
Snow is forecast to develop Thursday Morning with snow continuing into Thursday Night before tapering off from southwest to northeast Friday Morning. Snow could become heavy at times especially from Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Evening.
Total snowfall accumulations:
5-10″ of snow is possible by Friday Morning in the warning area. The greatest amounts which could exceed 10″ are expected to be over Northwest Wisconsin and also over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Winds/Visibility:
Northwest winds will gust to 40 mph Thursday Night and Friday. Visibility as low as one quarter mile at times in snow and blowing snow.
Impacts:
Snow covered roads will make driving extremely difficult. There will be considerable blowing and drifting snow and near whiteout conditions at times Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Night especially in rural areas. The snow will be the heavy wet variety. When clearing snow after the storm make sure you take breaks and drink plenty of water.
**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow accumulation is anticipated and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times. Expect snow covered roads and visibility less than one quarter mile. If you must travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination. Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded. Keep a winter storm survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water. If you choose to travel be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many hours for help to arrive**
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*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northern and North Central Minnesota.
Timing:
6 AM Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Aitkin MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls
Northome
Littlefork
Togo
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Hill City
McGregor
Aitkin
Discussion:
Snow is forecast to develop early Thursday Morning with snow continuing into Thursday Evening before tapering off late Thursday Night or Friday Morning.
Total snowfall accumulations:
2-5″ of snow is possible by Friday Morning.
Winds/Visibility:
Increasing northwest winds Thursday Night and Friday will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Impacts:
Roads will become snow covered and slippery. Falling snow will reduce visibility so be sure to use caution while traveling. The snow will be the heavy wet variety. When clearing snow after the storm make sure you take breaks and drink plenty of water.
**A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility. Use caution while driving. Allow extra time to reach your destination**
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Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Red=Blizzard Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
Blue=Winter Storm Watch
Source: HAMweather.com
Tim
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