/Issued 4:00 PM CDT, Friday, September 19, 2014/
A slight risk for severe thunderstorms (Yellow area on the map) Saturday Afternoon and Evening across North Central Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Fall color map as of September 19, 2014. Most areas in Minnesota still at 10-25% color change with pockets of up to 50% color change here and there (See legend on the right) Source, MNDNR.
For Northwest Wisconsin:
Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Burnett Counties are generally less than 25% color change.
Price County is at or over 50% color change with Iron, Washburn, and Sawyer Counties nearing 50% color change. Source, travelwisconsin.com
Weather Summary for September 19, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 996mb has moved into Western Ontario late This Afternoon with a cold front moving into the Eastern Dakotas. A 40+ knot low level jet out ahead of this system has resulted in a warm/moist advection pattern across the region Today and this has led to the development of some rain showers throughout the Northland. Some of the showers have been heavy at times especially over far Northern Minnesota and into the Arrowhead. Highs Today were in the 50s and 60s with south winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 19)
An area of low pressure along with a cold front will be moving through the Northland Tonight. Scattered showers will continue and a few thunderstorms are also possible. The amount of instability will actually increase during the night with CAPE values approaching 1000 j/kg. Winds aloft will be on the strong side, and the amount of wind shear in place will also be favorable for storm organization. I don’t think will see widespread strong/severe storms Tonight, but isolated strong storms are certainly possible over parts of the area. Temperatures won’t move much Tonight as readings hold in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (September 20)
Tonight’s system will exit to our east but a stronger disturbance will move in from the northwest and will dig into the Upper Midwest Saturday Afternoon-Night. This next system will have pretty good dynamics going for it, but moisture and instability will both be kind of marginal for widespread severe weather. Will likely see showers and thunderstorms develop from NW-SE from Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening with some showers lingering during the Overnight hours of Saturday.
Note: A few of the storms Saturday PM could become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds. Lightning will also be a threat with any thunderstorm Saturday Afternoon/Evening so remember the saying…When thunder roars move indoors…
Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (September 21-23)
There’s a small chance for a few lingering showers over Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Sunday but most of us should be dry, and the dry weather is expected to continue on Monday and Tuesday.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s on Sunday and in the 60s and 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night should bottom out in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(September 24-29)
Looks like we could be dealing with some showers on Wednesday (24th) as a system moves in from the southwest – otherwise this period looks relatively quiet/dry at the moment. Near to possibly above average temperatures are expected through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Scattered showers especially This Evening. Considerable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 69 to 74. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Showers or thunderstorms during the Evening. Showers Overnight. Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 64
Low: 45
Sunrise Saturday: 6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:10 PM CDT
Tim
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