/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Saturday, February 21, 2015/
The next 24 hours will be downright brutal, but come Monday things will change in a rather big way! Shown below is the 850mb wind forecast valid at 6 PM Monday per 18z NAM/WRF model. The red area indicates winds of 50 knots to nearly 70 knots at 850mb/around 5000 feet. Those intense winds won’t fully mix down to the surface, but there is a pretty good chance will see wind gusts of 25-30+ mph across the Northland from Monday into Monday Night. The other thing will see happen is a rapid increase in temperatures, in fact much of the Northland could be up around 20, or even into the 20s from Monday PM into Tuesday. Source, college of dupage website.
NWS hazards map.
Darker blue=Wind Chill Warning. More information at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20warning
Lighter blue=Wind Chill Advisory. More information at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory
Weather Summary for February 21, 2015
Location: northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
The next blast of arctic air is moving into the Northland This Afternoon as high pressure begins to build southeast out of western Canada. Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures were in the -26 to -32C range over Manitoba and western and central Ontario with 500mb heights of 510-522 meters from northern Minnesota to Manitoba and Ontario. Skies were mostly sunny to partly cloudy Today and there has been a few flurries falling in a few spots from time to time. Highs were in the single digits and teens with northwest winds at 10 to around 25 mph.
Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 21)
Arctic high pressure averaging 1050mb will move into North Dakota by daybreak. Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with plummeting temperatures. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with a few 30s below possible in the traditional cold spots in northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (February 22)
High pressure in the 1045-1050mb range tracks southeast out of the northern Plains during this period. Clear to partly cloudy skies are on tap with highs on Sunday only in the single digits below to around 10 below, lows Sunday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s below. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15 mph on Sunday and out of the west or southwest Sunday Night at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (February 23-25)
A dramatic temperature increase will take place Monday and Tuesday as low pressure passes through Ontario while high pressure exits to our southeast. The pressure gradient will tighten between the high to our SE and low to our N, this will result in gusty winds on Monday and Tuesday.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with the mildest temperatures probably not occurring until late in the day or during the Evening hours. Temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night ranging from the single digits above to teens below zero. Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits.
A coating to an inch of snow is possible in parts of the Northland Monday Evening-early Tuesday otherwise the Monday through Wednesday time frame is looking pretty dry.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 26-March 3)
The unofficial start to spring (March 1) looks cold. The overall weather pattern just isn’t in a hurry to change, and until it does will more than likely be stuck in a colder than normal regime around here. We won’t be adding much snow though with the flow out of the north or northwest, no major storms anytime soon.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WIND CHILL WARNING FOR DULUTH*
Timing: 9 PM This Evening until Noon CST Sunday.
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing: Noon Sunday until 11 AM CST Monday.
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing: 3 AM Sunday until 11 AM CST Monday.
.Tonight… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chill developing during the night. Mostly clear. Low 13 below to 18 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 45 below.
.Sunday… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Sunny. High 0 to 5 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 45 below during the Morning and around 25 below during the Afternoon.
.Sunday Night… Bitterly cold. Clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 40 below.
.Monday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 15 to 20. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.
.Monday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Flurries or snow showers possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 21 to 26.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
High: 26
Low: 9
Sunrise Sunday: 7:01 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:44 PM CST
Tim
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