/Issued 5:01 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 18, 2015/
Great Lakes ice coverage is down to 55% as of March 17. Note: The white areas on the map below represent generally open water, darker shaded areas indicate ice cover. Source, GLERL.
Over Lake Superior the bulk of the ice has shifted to the Central and Eastern portion of the lake. One thing to watch will be to see if or when winds shift around to the east if that will cause the ice to shift into the Western portion of the lake. It would likely take several days of east winds to cause the ice to shift back to the Western part of the lake, plus the ice thickness is certainly less than what it was a year ago…So will just have to wait and see what happens in coming days/weeks.
Surface map forecast for Wednesday, March 25, 2015. Source, Weather Prediction Center. A low pressure system over the Dakotas could impact the Northland toward the middle of next week with some precipitation possible at that time.
Weather Tidbits:
*The 2015 severe weather season is off to a very slow start with zero tornadoes reported in the U.S. during the 1st half of March. The last time this happened was in 1969, so yeah it’s been a while. Note: No one knows what will happen the rest of the way, a very slow start could mean an active mid/late portion of the tornado season. Time will tell. Source, WeatherNation
*Today is the 13th consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at the Duluth Airport (March 6-18) Will likely add a few more days to this streak, although it could come to an end this weekend.
Weather Summary for March 18, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A mid/upper level trough was moving east/southeast into the Northern Rockies late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1014mb over Western South Dakota and high pressure of 1024mb centered in Central Indiana with a ridge extending northwest into the Great Lakes. There’s been some snow and rain Today in parts of Western/Southern Minnesota due to some warm advection which is occurring ahead of that South Dakota low. The Northland stayed dry though under mostly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the upper 30s to mid 40s with a lot less wind compared to Tuesday. Wind direction was variable Today with wind speeds of less than 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (March 18)
High pressure shifts off to the east while a weak boundary over Northern Minnesota and Western Lake Superior lifts slowly toward the north/east Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland Tonight and there is a chance for spotty light snow or rain especially later in the night. Lows will be in the 30s with 20s in far Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the south or east at around 10 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (March 19)
An area of low pressure will pass north of our area this period while a trough and cold front affect the Northland. A few rain showers are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with snow possible too, especially during the Morning hours. If it does snow I don’t think any of it will stick, and even if it did it would only be a small amount of snow which would just melt later in the day anyways.
High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be in the 40s with some 50s even possible if we get enough sunshine. 30s will hang on though in far Northeast Minnesota and along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s. Winds on Thursday will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 20 mph with winds Thursday Night out of the west or southwest.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (March 20-22)
A cold front will pass through the area on Friday while low pressure moves southeast out of the Northern Plains. This system should bring some rain showers to parts of the Northland on Friday with precipitation possibly ending as flurries Friday Evening/Overnight. Chillier temperatures will follow this system.
Highs on Friday are expected to be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Friday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(March 23-28)
Near to above average temperatures from the 23rd-25th with near to possibly below average temperatures from the 26th-28th. A system could bring some rain or maybe some snow to the region sometime around the 24th-25th although whatever does fall isn’t expected to be very heavy the way it looks now.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow or rain showers possible Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow or rain showers possible early. High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible late. High 45 to 50.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible during the Evening. Low 20 to 25.
.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 30 to 35.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
High: 35
Low: 19
Sunrise Thursday: 7:14 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 7:19 PM CDT
Tim
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