/Issued 4:31 PM CDT, Saturday, March 21, 2015/
Pretty active out there Today with several areas of low pressure (Red L’s on the map) Spotty thunderstorms occurring late This Afternoon with that Texas low, and also near the low over the Pacific Northwest. Strong winds aloft — 120 to 140 knots occurring on the south side of that Ontario low Today. Source, college of dupage/water vapor satellite image from 4:45 PM CDT Today.
A fairly decent snow event is expected Sunday/Sunday Night in portions of West Central and South Central Minnesota with snow totals possibly exceeding 3-4″ in some areas. The map below is the snow accumulation forecast per 18z WRF-NMM. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
The area shaded in purple on the map below is in a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Sunday and Sunday Night. More information at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
I haven’t noticed much change in the computer models between Today and 24 hours ago regarding the Tuesday Night/Wednesday system. This one still has a chance to drop a few inches of snow or a rain/snow mix generally in the blue outlined area on the map.
Rainfall report for March 20, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.11″
Ashland, WI: 0.15″
Hayward, WI: 0.12″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.15″
Floodwood, MN: 0.12″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI: 0.28″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.11″
Weather Summary for March 21, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A much colder day compared to what we have seen over the past few weeks. High pressure of 1032mb was centered over Manitoba late This Afternoon. Skies across the Northland ranged from sunny to partly sunny Today with highs generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (March 21)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s with single digits in the typical cold spots. High pressure will be centered to our northwest/east Tonight while low pressure moves into the Northern Plains/Western High Plains region. Winds Tonight will shift to the north or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (March 22)
An area of low pressure will track southeast out of the Northern Plains and Western High Plains while high pressure sets up to our north/east. Snow or a rain/snow mix will occur Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night west/south of the Northland with the potential for several inches of snow in parts of South Central and perhaps Central Minnesota. Note: There is a chance that some light snow could spread as far north as the Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley, Pine City areas especially Sunday Night but right now it looks like the heavier snow would remain to our south.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 20s. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Monday through Wednesday (March 23-25)
Snow or rain showers are possible on Monday mostly in Northern Minnesota as a weak disturbance approaches from the northwest, this doesn’t look like a real big deal at the moment. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior, lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.
Tuesday and Wednesday could be messy as low pressure moves east out of the Western High Plains. Based on current model data it appears that rain or a wintry mix of precipitation will develop in Western/Southern parts of the Northland Tuesday late Afternoon or Evening with precipitation slowly spreading north/east Tuesday Night — Most of the precipitation by late Tuesday Night should change over to snow the way it looks now.
Snow could linger into Wednesday although it’s too early to say with much certainty if this snow would be moderate to heavy or just light snow and flurries.
Note: The potential still exists for a couple inches of snow in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday Night into Wednesday, but if the storm track changes this could mean more or less snow for our area. Stay tuned.
High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Wednesday mainly in the 30s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(March 26-31)
Flurries or snow showers might linger in parts of the area on Thursday (26th) A new weather system could bring some rain or snow to the Northland sometime between the 28th-30th. Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 26th-31st.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast late.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Tuesday Night… Snow or rain developing late. Low 30 to 32.
.Wednesday… Snow or rain possible. High 32 to 34.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
High: 37
Low: 20
Sunrise Sunday: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 7:24 PM CDT
Tim
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