/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Monday, April 20, 2015/
Snow squall parameter forecast valid at 7 AM CDT Tuesday, April 21, 2015 per 12z Duluth WRF model. The purple and lighter blue colors on this map indicate favorable conditions for snow squall development. This particular parameter identifies where low level potential instability, sufficient moisture, and strong winds will be to support snow squall development. In fact, most of Tuesday should have fairly high values for snow squall development over the Northland.
Snowfall forecast through 7 AM CDT Tuesday per 1 PM (18z) RAP model. A light dusting of snow is possible by daybreak over most of the Northland with up to 1″ or a little more possible from the Iron Range through the Arrowhead and along the Borderland. Northern Ontario could see upwards of 4-8″ of snow Tonight.
The overall weather pattern for the next several days is a favorable one for colder than normal temperatures in the Northland as deep low pressure remains over Eastern Canada causing a persistent N-NW flow aloft which will bring cool Canadian air down from Manitoba and Northern Ontario. Source, water vapor satellite image from 4:15 PM CDT Today; college of dupage website.
How much rain the last 2 days? Here’s a map that answers that question per National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Weather Summary for April 20, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A prolonged cool snap is underway! Deep low pressure of 982mb was centered just north/northeast of Lake Superior This Afternoon with gusty northwest winds and chilly temperatures found behind this low pressure system. High temperatures Today were only in the 30s to around 40 degrees which is 10-20 degrees below average for late April. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Rain and snow in far Northeast Minnesota and over Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin tapered off This Afternoon although there continued to be some rain/snow affecting the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of 4 PM Today. Additional light snow and rain showers have been dropping south/southeast through the remainder of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (April 20)
Strong area of low pressure averaging 985mb remains over Northern Ontario Tonight with an upper level low and trough covering the Upper Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies with areas of light snow or a rain/snow mix will be found in our area Tonight with low temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (April 21)
Low pressure stays put over Northern Ontario with an upper level low and trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies continue this period with areas of light snow which could mix with or change to drizzle/light rain in some spots Tuesday Afternoon. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Northwest winds are forecast this period at 15 to 30 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Wednesday through Friday (April 22-24)
Not much change in the weather through mid week as low pressure at the surface and aloft remain to our east/northeast. Clouds and some snow/rain showers will be possible on Wednesday but Thursday and Friday are looking mainly dry at this time. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Wednesday through Friday with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(April 25-30)
Below average temperatures are expected as we close out the month of April. There is a storm system showing up in the computer models for this weekend (25th-26th) as of now it looks like most if not all of the rain associated with that storm would remain south of the Northland but things could change in coming days so stay tuned.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Windy. Mostly cloudy with snow showers and flurries. Low 30 to 35. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Tuesday… Windy. Mostly cloudy with snow showers and flurries. Ice pellets are also possible. High 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy with snow showers and flurries. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 37 to 42.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 52
Low: 32
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:11 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:05 PM CDT
Tim
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