/Issued 12:27 PM CDT, Monday, June 22, 2015/
…Scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon-early this evening in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin…
Showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northland earlier this morning, a few of these storms were strong to severe with hail and gusty winds. Very heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning also accompanied these storms. Note: I’ll have rainfall and storm reports in a separate blog post sometime early this evening.
See map below: Looking at the water vapor satellite image from 12:07 PM CDT, today, Monday June 22, 2015 we see a cold front (Blue line of the map) extending roughly from Northern Minnesota to Northwest Iowa while a potent upper level low/trough with 12-hour 500mb height falls of up to 60 meters covering the Red River Valley region.
For the rest of today will watch the cold front move east while the upper low and upper trough digs east/southeast into Northern Minnesota.
The surface cold front will be a focal point for scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon while the upper low and upper trough will be another area where scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through the early evening hours.
Early afternoon meso-analysis from the Storm Prediction Center does show that the atmosphere is recovering after the early morning convection. CAPE has increased to 500-1000 j/kg in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Pockets of clearing should continue/develop during the next few hours which should help increase the amount of instability just a bit more with Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin probably having the greatest instability by mid or late afternoon.
A few of the thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and early this evening could be strong to severe with a threat of hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning will also be possible.
Visible satellite image from 12:37 PM CDT Today. Source, college of dupage website.
White areas on the map=Cloud-cover.
Darker areas=Some sun.
12z 4km NAM future radar for this afternoon. Source, OWxData.com
4 PM Today.
Tim
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