/Issued 7:28 PM CDT, Sunday, June 28, 2015/
Monday’s severe weather outlook. Source, WSI.
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (Category 2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Category 1)
Monday will be another day that features scattered showers and thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Future radar per 18z 4km NAM. Source, OWxData.com
1 PM Monday: Scattered convection begins to develop in Northern Minnesota.
4 PM Monday: Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered around the region. These storms should be tracking toward the south or southeast. A few of the storms could be strong to severe Monday Afternoon.
7 PM Monday: Still a risk for showers and thunderstorms Monday Evening.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
June 21-27, 2015
High temperatures:
6/21: 80F/8 degrees above normal
6/22: 73F/Normal
6/23: 79F/6 degrees above normal
6/24: 79F/6 degrees above normal
6/25: 74F/1 degree above normal
6/26: 77F/3 degrees above normal
6/27: 82F/8 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
6/21: 55F/4 degrees above normal
6/22: 57F/6 degrees above normal
6/23: 52F/Normal
6/24: 52F/Normal
6/25: 51F/1 degree below normal
6/26: 54F/2 degrees above normal
6/27: 53F/Normal
Total precipitation: 1.71″
Normal: 1.08″
Departure: +0.63″ above normal
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Local Storm Reports for June 26 and 28, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*8:07 PM CDT 6/26: 0.50″ HAIL. Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County) Quarter to half inch diameter hail. Duration of 15 minutes.
*12:15 PM CDT 6/28: 0.25″ HAIL. 11 N of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: June 28, 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in parts of the Northland today as low pressure pushed off to the south/southeast while an upper level low and cold air aloft lingered over the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms remained below severe levels today but frequent cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rain did occur in a lot of the storms along with some gusty winds and small hail. Note: One person was struck by lightning this afternoon in Duluth, Minnesota; 2 others were struck by lightning in Cherry, Minnesota. High temperatures today were in the 60s and 70s with a few Western areas up around 80 where showers and thunderstorms were much more isolated in coverage compared to areas farther east. Winds today were out of the east or north at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 28)
Low pressure will be centered to our north and southeast. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will continue in parts of the area this evening with a chance for a few more showers or thunderstorms overnight mainly in Northern Minnesota. Patchy fog could form tonight otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (June 29)
A cold front along with an area of low pressure will drop south/southeast through the Northland during this period. Instability looks higher tomorrow compared to what we saw today with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg along with lifted indices from -3 to -6C. Mid level winds will generally be around 30 knots with stronger upper level winds approaching 100 knots over the Red River Valley region. As the cold front approaches we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms erupt over the Northland on Monday with precipitation continuing Monday Evening before ending late Monday Night.
A few of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe in parts of the area Monday Afternoon and Evening with gusty winds and hail possible. Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning is also likely.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and lower 60s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (June 30-July 2)
Generally dry weather is expected for Tuesday but we could be dealing with a few showers or thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday but this doesn’t look like a real big deal at the moment. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees from Tuesday through Thursday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Low temperatures Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s with a few spots possibly dipping into the 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(July 3-8)
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Friday (3rd) and again sometime around 5th-6th. Near to above average temperatures are expected from July 3-8. Note: The 4th of July itself looks dry at this time with temperatures in the 70s and possibly even the 80s!
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly before Midnight. Patchy fog possible late. Low 57 to 62. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing. High 78 to 83. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday Night… A few showers and thunderstorms possible mainly early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 74
Low: 53
Sunrise Monday: 5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 9:07 PM CDT
Tim
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