/Issued 7:56 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 1, 2015/
Average number of July tornadoes (1989-2013) Source, NOAA; Storm Prediction Center.
Minnesota: 11
Wisconsin: 5
The majority of the Northland stayed dry today but a few heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms did develop this afternoon and are continuing as of 8 PM this evening in a small part of Northern Cass and Southwest Itasca County in Northern Minnesota – Doppler radar rainfall estimates show upwards of a half to one inch of rain along Highway 2 between Cass Lake and Bena.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast. Source, WSI.
June 2015 climate summaries for select cities in the Upper Midwest
Source: National Weather Service
International Falls, Minnesota
Average temperature: 59.9 degrees
Departure: -0.9 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 3.20″
Departure: -0.72″ below normal
8 thunderstorm days
Duluth, Minnesota
Average temperature: 61.4 degrees
Departure: +1.3 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 3.64″
Departure: -0.59″ below normal
8 thunderstorm days
Twin Cities, Minnesota
Average temperature: 69.7 degrees
Departure: +0.8 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 4.40″
Departure: +0.15″ above normal
10 thunderstorm days
St. Cloud, Minnesota
Average temperature: 66.2 degrees
Departure: +0.6 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 4.66″
Departure: +0.49″ above normal
9 thunderstorm days
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Average temperature: 66.5 degrees
Departure: -0.4 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 4.83″
Departure: +0.70″ above normal
7 thunderstorm days
Marquette, Michigan
Average temperature: 58.1 degrees
Departure: -2.5 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.49″
Departure: +0.35″ below normal
5 thunderstorm days
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Average temperature: 63.8 degrees
Departure: -2.4 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.49″
Departure: -1.41″ below normal
4 thunderstorm days
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: July 1, 2015
High pressure of 1016mb covered the Great Lakes today. Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny to partly sunny with very pleasant high temperatures on this first day of July. Highs were in the 70s today with 60s closer to Lake Superior. Widely scattered showers did develop this afternoon over a small portion of Northern Cass and Itasca County in Northern Minnesota with the heaviest downpours occurring between Cass Lake and Bena along Highway 2 in Northern Cass County per doppler radar rainfall estimates. The remainder of the Northland stayed dry today. Winds were out of the south, west, or east at around 10 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 1)
An area of high pressure will be off to our south/east. Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area tonight with spotty showers in Western areas ending during the night. Patchy fog could form in spots tonight as low temperatures dip into the 40s and 50s with a few 60s in Northwest areas. Winds will be out of the south or east around 10 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (July 2)
High pressure remains centered to our south/east, expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies over the Northland this period with spotty showers and thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon-Evening hours. There will be a little bit of instability in Northern Minnesota Tomorrow with CAPE of a few hundred j/kg and this might be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Note: Smoky/hazy skies will probably continue over the Northland through Thursday.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (July 3-5)
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland on Friday as a cold front sinks south out of Ontario. Instability will increase especially over Southern sections of the area on Friday with CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg while Lifted Indices fall to around -2 to -5C. If we get enough convergence to develop near the boundary then we could see a few strong thunderstorms develop Friday PM over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.
The 4th of July (Saturday) looks generally dry in our area with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be a bit cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
A cold front will be moving east through the Northern Plains and eventually into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as this boundary moves east but it looks like the better chances for rain might hold off until Sunday Night here in the Northland. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(July 6-11)
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible sometime during the 8th-10th time frame. Near normal temperatures are expected from the 6th-11th the way it looks now.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. Spotty late day showers or thunderstorms possible. High 76 to 81. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.
.4th of July… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
High: 75
Low: 54
Sunrise Thursday: 5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 9:06 PM CDT
Tim
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