/Issued 12:22 PM CDT, Friday, July 3, 2015/
15z HRRR model run valid at 3 PM today. Source, College of Dupage website.
5 PM this afternoon:
…A few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening in parts of the Northland…
A cold front will move south/east through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin today and tonight. Along and ahead of this boundary it will be fairly humid and unstable. Dew points as of 12 PM today were in the upper 50s to mid 60s with PWATS up to 1.20″. CAPE was sitting in the 1000-2000 j/kg range with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C. Mid Level Lapse Rates were generally around 6.0-6.5 c/km per early afternoon meso-analysis.
There should be enough forcing/lift with the cold front moving in to cause a few showers and thunderstorms. Certainly will have enough energy and moisture available for storms today but the front itself is pretty weak, that plus the winds aloft, as well as the wind shear are on the weaker side, so thunderstorms that are able to develop probably won’t last very long, or it could be a case where a thunderstorm develops, falls apart, kicks out an outflow boundary and then we see a new storm develop near the OFB.
Heavy downpours and lightning will likely be the main hazards with any thunderstorm today and this evening. A lesser chance for small hail and gusty winds.
This should not be a widespread event by any means but just be aware that there could be a few showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland from mid to late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Tim
Leave a Reply