/Issued 8:13 PM CDT, Monday, September 21, 2015/
Surface map forecast valid for Wednesday per Weather Prediction Center. Red line on the map represents a warm front — Areas of rain/isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting Tuesday night and lingering through Thursday in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin due to that warm front which will be draped over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Slight risk for rainfall amounts to exceed flash flood guidance for Wednesday through Thursday morning in the green outlined area on the map. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
7-day rainfall forecast valid through Monday, September 28, 2015. Source, Weather Prediction Center. Half inch to one inch plus rain amounts are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the next week.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Tuesday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Note: Today marks the 99th day in 2015 with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport. The annual average is 85 days. I have no doubt that will top the 100 day mark if not tomorrow then over the upcoming weekend. How high will we go? Stay tuned!
3 years ago on today’s date parts of the Northland saw some snow and mixed precipitation…Here’s my blog post from September 21, 2012 (Click the link below)
http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/alert-freeze-watch-for-duluth-and.html
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: September 21, 2015
An unseasonably warm day over the Northland under sunny to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures were in the 70s with lower 80s from International Falls to Pine River and Brainerd. A little more humid today with afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Southerly winds were quite strong today with wind speeds ranging from 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 21)
Will see a prefrontal trough and cold front move east-southeast into the Northland during the night with both of those boundaries moving into Northern Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota by daybreak. A few spotty showers or thunderstorms could develop over the area tonight. There is some instability and moisture available to support spotty convection tonight with CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg along with dew points which will hold in the 50s and low 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s in far Northwest areas. Winds will be out of the south or southwest this evening at 10 to 25 mph with southwest or northwest winds after midnight at 10 to 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday night (September 22)
A cold front will push south and out of the Northland Tuesday morning…This boundary will then stall out over Southern Minnesota while high pressure builds into Ontario.
A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning mainly over Northwest Wisconsin. Then we could see some showers or isolated thunderstorms develop and affect portions of North Central Minnesota either Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night as moisture and some weak instability lifts up and over the developing warm front to our south.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than what we saw today with 60s and lower 70s expected tomorrow but this is still at to slightly above average for this time of year. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds tomorrow will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with winds tomorrow night turning to the east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Wednesday through Friday (September 23-25)
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Northland on Wednesday and possibly into Thursday with mainly dry weather expected on Friday the way it looks now.
A frontal boundary will remain to our south on Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure to our N/NE. Moisture and a bit of instability should lift up and over that front and this will likely lead to some areas of rain and scattered thunderstorm activity over parts of our area on Wednesday and maybe on Thursday too.
High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s but there is a chance for warmer temperatures on Thursday with some parts of the Northland possibly getting into the 70s. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night will mainly be in the 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(September 26-October 1)
Above average temperatures are forecast during the long range with the warmest temperatures possibly occurring this weekend (26th-27th) A few showers are possible from the 28th-30th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight. Low 56 to 61. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west toward daybreak.
.Tuesday… Cooler! Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 55 to 60.
.Wednesday night… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers possible. Low 50 to 55.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 58 to 63.
.Thursday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.
Normal temperatures for Tuesday
High: 62
Low: 44
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:06 PM CDT
Tim
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