/Issued 4:43 PM CST, Sunday, November 29, 2015/
Probability for snowfall totals of at least 4″ from 6 PM Monday through 6 PM Tuesday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Red=70% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Green=40% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Blue=10% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Water vapor satellite loop from today, November 29, 2015. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Still seeing a large upper level system spinning away across the Rockies – This mid/upper level feature will eventually move east/northeast into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Tuesday.
I updated my snowfall map a bit from earlier today, more changes are possible.
One thing I’m starting to become concerned about is a possible mixture or changeover from snow to drizzle/light rain on Tuesday in the green outlined area on the map. Temperatures are going to be borderline for the precipitation to remain all snow especially close to Lake Superior during the day Tuesday. It’s very possible we see the snow mix with or change to light rain or drizzle on Tuesday near Lake Superior and this could result in snowfall totals remaining around the 4″ mark near the immediate lakeshore.
Future radar from the 12z WRF-NMM model. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Steady snow should remain west/south of the Northland Monday morning and early afternoon.
Snow is expected to push north into areas south of Highway 2 by late Monday afternoon or early evening.
Snow should be falling over a good chunk of the Northland by Midnight tomorrow night. Note: Thinking a snow start time between 5 PM – 9 PM Monday in Duluth and Superior.
Snow should be falling in most of the Northland Tuesday morning. Be prepared for a slower commute to work or school Tuesday morning.
The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for most of the Northland from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. More information can be found at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Regional Climate Centers. Still warmer than normal last week although the departures weren’t as significant as in previous weeks. Last week finished around +2 degrees above normal in Duluth.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Regional Climate Centers. Very dry last week. Precipitation totals generally less than 25% of normal in the Northland.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Monday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
November 22-28, 2015
High temperatures:
11/22: 26 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/23: 36 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/24: 37 F/+6 degrees above normal
11/25: 42 F/+12 degrees above normal
11/26: 34 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/27: 25 F/-4 degrees below normal
11/28: 36 F/+7 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
11/22: 11 F/-7 degrees below normal
11/23: 25 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/24: 26 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/25: 32 F/+15 degrees above normal
11/26: 16 F/Normal
11/27: 10 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/28: 13 F/-2 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.06″
Normal: 0.42″
Departure: -0.36″ below normal
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: November 29, 2015
Another quiet weather day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Southerly flow coming off Lake Superior resulted in an area of lake effect clouds along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead today. Highs were in the 30s and winds were out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 29)
One more quiet night under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s but the typical cold spots could drop into the single digits once again. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday night (November 30)
Increasing cloudiness on Monday with snow or a wintry mix of precipitation lifting north into portions of East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during Monday afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30s with east winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts developing near Lake Superior.
Snow is forecast to lift north overspreading most if not all of the Northland Monday night with any mixed precipitation confined to parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 20s and 30s with easterly winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
A strong mid/upper level low pressure system which is over the Central Rockies today will be moving east/northeast toward the Upper Midwest on Monday while a surface low develops over the Central Plains.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (December 1-3)
Snow continues on Tuesday with a possible mixture of precipitation types in parts of Northwest Wisconsin as well as for locations close to Lake Superior. Light snow and flurries will probably linger Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before dry weather returns Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will be lifting northeast through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday before exiting to the east on Wednesday.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s with lows Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s with teens possible in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(December 4-9)
Looking at above average temperatures during the long range with no major storm systems the way it looks now.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing: 6 PM Monday until 6 AM CST Wednesday
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Increasing cloudiness. High 33 to 37. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday night… Snow developing between 5 PM and 9 PM with snow overnight. Breezy. Low 30 to 33. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Areas of blowing snow possible late.
.Tuesday… Snow. Snow could mix with drizzle closer to Lake Superior. Breezy. High 33 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Areas of blowing snow possible.
.Tuesday night… Light snow and flurries. Total snowfall accumulations of 4-6″ possible. Low 25 to 30.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Wednesday night… Partly cloudy. Low 16 to 21.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 32 to 37.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 28
Low: 14
Sunrise Monday: 7:31 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:23 PM CST
Tim
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