/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Monday, February 29, 2016/
Most of the weather action this week will stay south of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but next week could be a different story — The image below is the forecasted 500mb pattern valid for Monday, March 7, 2016. This type of pattern that is shown on this map is often a stormy one for the Upper Midwest as deep troughing sets up over the Rockies (Note how the green lines on the map dip) One or more low pressure systems may affect the Upper Midwest next week but with a lot of warm air expected to be in place by that time the majority of what falls should be in the form of rain and not snow or ice. Stay tuned. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Tuesday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Heads up if you have travel plans to Central/Eastern South Dakota, Northern Iowa, far Southern Minnesota or Southern Wisconsin — Snow accumulating to several inches tonight and Tuesday. Source, 20z RAP model. Note: Winter weather headlines are in effect tonight and tomorrow including a winter storm warning for parts of Southern Wisconsin.
24-hour snowfall map ending the morning of February 29, 2016. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Snowfall report for February 29, 2016
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
1 NW of Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County) 3.5″
4 S of Tower, MN (St. Louis County) 3.2″
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0″
Ashland, WI (Ashland County) 2.3″
3 E of Orr, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
Gile, WI (Iron County) 2.0″
2 E of Celina, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
Winton, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County) 1.9″
4 NNW of Arnold, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5″
3 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County) 1.5″
5 NE of Grand Portage, MN (Cook County) 1.5″
Peak wind gusts from February 29, 2016
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Devils Island: 53 mph
2 SE of Bayfield: 45 mph
1 N of Knife River: 44 mph
Duluth Airport: 44 mph
Grand Rapids: 44 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 44 mph
Ashland: 43 mph
Brainerd: 43 mph
Cloquet: 40 mph
Northome: 40 mph
Pine River: 40 mph
March climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Temperature: 26.0 degrees
Precipitation: 1.49″
Snowfall: 13.2″
*Warmest: 39.2 degrees set in 2012
Coldest: 13.5 degrees set in 1923
*Wettest: 5.12″ set in 1965
Snowiest: 48.2″ set in 1917
Astronomical data for March:
Sunrise on the 1st: 6:47 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 6:49 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 5:55 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 7:37 PM CST
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: February 29, 2016
A very cold last unofficial day of winter 2015-16. Cold front which produced a coating to a few inches of snow across the Northland early this morning has moved well off to the east this afternoon and is being replaced with high pressure which is building southeast out of Manitoba Province — A mix of sun/clouds this morning with generally sunny or mostly sunny skies this afternoon with temperatures only in the single digits in far Northern Minnesota with teens to near 20 degrees elsewhere. Note: Afternoon temperatures are running 15 to nearly 25 degrees colder than average on this final day of February. Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 29)
High pressure moves into the Northern Plains tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies in the Northland with low temperatures ranging from the single digits, teens and possibly a few 20s below zero in Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds tonight will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday night (March 1)
March comes in like a lamb — High pressure will move over the Upper Midwest resulting in a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s. Partly cloudy skies for Tuesday night with lows in the single digits below to teens above zero. West or northwest winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with a variable wind direction tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (March 2-4)
Low pressure moves southeast out of the Northern Plains on Wednesday, most of the snow associated with this system looks like it’ll remain to our south but a few flurries could sneak into Southern portions of the area on Wednesday — Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday night in the single digits below to teens above zero.
Mainly dry on Thursday with highs in the 20s to around 30 degrees, lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens.
Light snow or flurries are possible on Friday as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(March 5-10)
A minor snow event is possible on Saturday (5th) after that it looks like will have a pattern change as a trough develops over the Western U.S. while a ridge takes hold over the Eastern U.S. — The Upper Midwest should get into a southwesterly flow aloft which could lead to a more active weather pattern for next week. A significant warming trend is also expected next week with above to well above average temperatures expected…So with these warmer temperatures and a more active pattern possibly developing, precipitation that does fall would be in the form of rain.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.
.Wednesday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 22 to 27.
.Thursday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.
Normal temperatures for Tuesday
High: 29
Low: 11
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:47 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:55 PM CST
Tim
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