/Issued 8:10 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 5, 2017/
23z HRRR model
*6th warmest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota today, July 5, 2017 — Today’s high 86 degrees which ties with 2012, 1978, 1976, 1933, 1887 and 1881 for 6th warmest high temperature on July 5. The warmest high temperature on July 5th is 94 degrees set in 1886.
*3rd wettest July 5th on record today at Duluth, Minnesota — Precipitation total 1.12 inches. The wettest July 5th on record occurred in 1999 with 3.25 inches of precipitation, and second wettest occurred in 1900 with 1.61 inches of precipitation.
A very warm and muggy day with highs today in the 80s with Two Harbors getting to 90 degrees while several other locations got within 2 degrees of 90 this afternoon. Dew points were highest in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today with values in the mid 60s to low 70s while less humid conditions were found across far northern Minnesota where dew points were in the 50s to around 60 degrees late this afternoon.
Warm and humid weather continues into Thursday followed by cooler and less humid conditions Friday. A frontal boundary was over northern Minnesota this afternoon with high values of instability found near and south of that front, so far we’ve had no thunderstorm development despite the weak front and strong instability in place — Looks like will finally get some thunderstorms to develop in parts of the Northland mostly after midnight and continuing through Thursday morning as a stronger disturbance approaches from the NW while the boundary up north drops S/SE as a cold front. The timing isn’t the best for strong to severe thunderstorms but this is a setup where the instability will remain on the high side even during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning, that combined with strengthening mid level winds and shear could lead to a few storms becoming strong or severe late tonight through Thursday morning in parts of the Northland. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main hazards if storms organize enough. Heavy rain and lightning will also be found near any thunderstorm.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with a few 50s possible in far northern areas. Highs Thursday will mainly be in the 80s with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with slightly lower dew points up north. Note: There is a chance that high temperatures will end up slightly cooler tomorrow if clouds and storms persist most of the day.
This brief bout of warmth and humidity will be a memory come Friday as winds turn to the N/NW while high temperatures range from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Could see a few spotty showers develop Friday afternoon.
Saturday looks pretty nice at the moment with highs in the 70s to lower 80s but it won’t be very humid, also looks dry Saturday.